Who's in? Who wins? AP's way too early prediction for the 2026 College Football Playoff

The playoff that everyone wanted — make that, demanded — is now a fixture in college football.

The latest set of tweaks were made to favor Notre Dame and maybe some mid-level champion of a big-name conference (think, Duke and the ACC last year), while the losers in that calculation are the little guys who see their chances of cracking into the bracket, let alone winning a game or two, grow that much slimmer.

Even with the adjustments, as the College Football Playoff heads toward its third season of the 12-team playoff, one thing feels the same: Among all the major sports in America (and maybe the world), it still has the market cornered on the most opaque, least consensus-building way of determining who gets to play for the title.

It is still a system in which one team's 10-2 record means something completely different than another team's 10-2 record (see 2025 versions of Oklahoma and Vanderbilt); in which one team's loss to another can have a drastically different meaning at the time it happens vs. four months later (see the Miami-Notre Dame fiasco from last year); and in which a weekly rankings show purports to shine a light on where things might fall, but in the end can sow more confusion (see every show last season airing the CFP rankings).

All that said, 12 teams will make it into the playoff field, which kicks off with four campus games starting Dec. 18. Two will get to Las Vegas to play for the title next Jan. 25. And one will win it all and join Indiana and Ohio State as the third champion of the 12-team-playoff era.

Here's a best guess on how things shake out (numbers indicate predicted seed):

The Fighting Irish, runners-up in 2024, bring back most of the team that got left on the bubble and out of the tournament last year despite being ranked 11th. The CFP executives fixed that — if Notre Dame is in the top 12, it must get a playoff spot. But with shutdown CB Leonard Moore and QB C.J. Carr returning, no need to worry about squeaking in.

Yes, the Buckeyes lost 11 players to the NFL, though that should serve as a reminder of the kind of talent this program brings in. If the season goes perfectly, QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith could both be in New York in December as finalists for the Heisman Trophy.

Last year's runner-up has the schedule and the players to dampen the impact from a potential Nov. 7 loss to Notre Dame. Darian Mensah threw for almost 4,000 yards at Duke last year, then left the ACC champs (with five losses) for greener pastures and presumably more bucks.

It feels like the last bye week available in the CFP for a top four seed will come down to an SEC title game between the Longhorns and Georgia, two teams that haven't quite lived up to the hype the last few years. All the buzz at Texas, of course, revolves around Arch Manning , who got lots of help this year to try to make up for last year when the 'Horns missed the playoff.

The Ducks, with Dante Moore , start at No. 2 in the preseason AP poll this year and could stay there heading into the Nov. 7 game at Ohio State. ... Hard to bet against Curt Cignetti at Indiana, even without Fernando Mendoza. ... Is Will Hammond ready? He better be after the Brandon Sorsby gambling debacle that could undermine an otherwise solid Texas Tech roster. ... Georgia is Georgia. It's what people used to say about Alabama, Florida and every great program in the SEC, which is on a three-year natinoal championship drought.

LSU's Lane Kiffin is a lot of things. Good coach is near the top of that list ... Defense travels and QB John Mateer is a stud who can run. OU's schedule (at Michigan, at Georgia, vs. Texas) is tough, though that can set you up for success if you win one or two. ... Reprising the Virginia pick from last year because this is, essentially, the same experienced team that almost won the ACC last year with a similarly weak schedule. ... ESPN said of the 76 all-conference players on last year's Group of Five rosters (now G6, with the Pac-12) who had eligibility left, only 23 returned to their school. The American might be a feeder league, but USF might be best in class.

After South Florida leapfrogs five or six teams to make the field of 12, bubble teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU and maybe USC cry foul, ask for reforms and maybe even threaten a lawsuit. ... After more snubs and Georgia's fall out of a first-round bye position after losing the conference title game, the SEC might finally go along with a CFP expansion to 24.

How about this prediction: Oklahoma goes on the road to knock out Texas Tech AND Ohio State. ... South Florida can't contend vs. Georgia, furthering the call to push the G6 completely out unless they earn a CFP berth via ranking. ... Notre Dame falls to Texas in the semifinals at the Sugar Bowl and Oregon earns its spot in the final with a road win over the 'Canes in the other semifinal at the Orange Bowl.

Oregon beats Texas 24-20 in Vegas to make it four straight for the Big Ten and land the Ducks that elusive championship. QB Dante Moore gets the national title trophy after barely losing a different one — the Heisman — to Manning.

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