Brazil faces a tense Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff with US influence over Latin America at stake

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazilians will choose between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's polarizing presidential election, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will significantly expand its growing influence in Latin America.

Polls before Sunday’s vote showed the two candidates, who need more than 50% of the vote to become Brazil’s next leader in January, in a neck-and-neck race . The election pits the left-of-center veteran politician Lula against Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump and the son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro .

Flávio Bolsonaro bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round of the election earlier this month. More than 33 million voters out of nearly 160 million abstained then.

The difference between the two candidates is stark. Bolsonaro and Lula have opposing ideological views on issues ranging from U.S.-Brazil relations and climate change to social welfare.

A win for Bolsonaro would signify a pivot to the right by Latin America's most populous country and its largest economy in a year when Trump allies have notched victories in Chile, Peru and Colombia.

A victory for Lula would leave Brazil and Mexico, which is the region’s second most populous country and led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, with left-of-center leaders.

In many ways, Brazil’s runoff vote resembles a rematch between the country’s two polarized political forces that trigger passion as much as loathing. Four years ago, Lula beat Bolsonaro’s father by the narrowest margin since the country’s return to democracy in 1985. Polls suggest that this election will be even closer.

Lula, who first governed the country between 2003 and 2010, has faced a tough reelection battle because of concerns about the cost of living and security. Flávio Bolsonaro made a tough-on-crime approach the cornerstone of his campaign and pledged to bring down food costs.

Both have been hit by corruption suspicions involving family members and allies, with Bolsonaro implicated in a sprawling scandal rocking Brazil. Lula spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled .

Bolsonaro’s admission that he accepted about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father’s life has cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case.

In the lead-up to the vote, Lula frequently portrayed Bolsonaro, whose father is under house arrest for attempting a coup, as a threat to democracy. Bolsonaro has promised to seek an amnesty for his father if elected.

The next president will name at least three Supreme Court justices out of 11 in his next term due to upcoming retirements. Bolsonaro has long taken aim at the country's top court — which has been rocked by a corruption scandal — and promised to push for judiciary reform.

Lula, trying to lure undecided voters, has invested in costly incentives since he lost the first round of voting. His government’s most recent moves have been endorsing a debt relief program for small businesses and promising free public transportation on weekends. A win for the incumbent came with the Senate's approval of the six-day working week — a popular proposal backed by the government.

Lula has criticized the U.S. president before Brazil's election, speaking about the risks of U.S. intervention in Brazilian elections after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs against Brazilian exports , sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that ended up resulting in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro and classified drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations, which experts say may have been intended to make Lula look soft on crime.

Flávio Bolsonaro has touted his proximity to the White House and insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including the rare minerals economy . Brazil estimates that its deposits hold up to 21 million tons, second only to China. He denies he's being helped by the U.S. government.

Voting in Brazil is conducted electronically and the result is usually available within hours after polling stations close.

Savarese reported from Sao Paulo.

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