Trump cheers Canadian provincial election wins, but analysts say they're no rebuke of Carney

TORONTO (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump drew criticism Wednesday for celebrating election victories by a Quebec separatist and a British Columbia Conservative, days after his administration accused Canadian politicians of interfering in U.S. elections.

With U.S. midterm elections approaching, Trump shared an article portraying the Quebec victory as a setback for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and hailed the Conservative win in British Columbia as evidence of the party’s growing strength.

But neither election was a referendum on Carney, whose federal Liberal Party is separate from British Columbia’s provincial Conservatives. Analysts say both results reflected provincial politics, not declining support for the prime minister.

“Congratulations to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on his WIN!” Trump wrote Tuesday on Truth Social, more than three weeks after the Quebec separatist leader’s Oct. 5 election victory. Trump linked to an article headlined “Separatists win Quebec provincial election in blow to Mark Carney.”

Trump also congratulated British Columbia’s premier-designate, Lorne Doerkson, on his “Big Victory,” adding: “Conservatives are moving strong in Canada!” The post came one minute before his congratulations to Quebec’s separatist leader.

The posts come amid Trump’s trade war and repeated threats to make Canada the 51st U.S. state. St-Pierre Plamondon has criticized Trump’s tariffs and ruled out holding a Quebec independence referendum while Trump remains president.

Trump’s trade war with Canada has become an issue in the Nov. 3 midterm elections , particularly in Michigan and Maine, where Republican candidates have faced pressure over tariffs hurting local businesses. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has called for an end to the tariff war.

“It is highly unusual for a U.S. President to comment on Canadian provincial politics or to congratulate provincial election winners,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

Béland said neither result should be interpreted as a rejection of Carney, whose popularity has been bolstered by his response to Trump.

Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto political scientist, said Trump misunderstands Canada’s Conservatives, noting that Doerkson has criticized Trump’s tariffs and called him a bully.

Doerkson spoke with Carney on Tuesday, with both leaders emphasizing cooperation on economic growth and investment.

“Carney’s popularity is at a stratospheric level,” Wiseman said. “The more Trump attacks Canada and Carney, the more popular Carney becomes.”

The U.S. Embassy in Ottawa last week accused Canadian politicians of seeking to influence the Nov. 3 midterms. It cited Industry Minister Mélanie Joly’s comments about targeting Republican states with retaliatory tariffs and Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s U.S. advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

The embassy also cited 11 Canadians charged with illegally voting in U.S. elections between 2012 and 2026, without linking the cases to the Canadian government.

Carney rejected the allegations , saying they had “no merit,” and expressed disappointment with U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra.

Béland warned that the accusations could foreshadow a “Blame Canada” narrative if Republicans suffer losses in the midterms.

“It is absurd for President Trump to comment on Canadian provincial politics while the U.S. embassy in Canada is falsely claiming that country is interfering in the U.S. midterms,” Béland said.