A 24-team CFP and a single guaranteed spot: Where the Group of Six fits in the new math

As the dust settled following the announcement that the College Football Playoff was expanding to 24 teams beginning next season, there was a hopeful word offered up by virtually everyone within the Group of Six football conferences: Opportunity.

Another word they used almost as much: Uncertainty.

Expansion brings a chance for 12 additional teams to make a run at the national championship in what has been coined the 19-4-1 model. But there are no guarantees beyond the four spots reserved for the Power Four conference champions and one spot designated for the highest-ranked Group of Six team.

The remaining 19 seeds will be chosen by the CFP selection committee, and pretty much everyone is wondering if that will favor Power Four teams at the expense of Group of Six programs that may have fewer losses but lighter strengths of schedule.

Some Group of Six representatives, like Sun Belt Conference Commissioner Keith Gill, say the 24-team expansion will serve them well. He noted that six Sun Belt champions since 2019 would have made the top 24 of the final CFP rankings and made an expanded bracket.

The American Conference’s Tom Pernetti praised expansion for keeping “more programs in the playoff hunt” with a chance at hosting games while Conference USA’s Judy MacLeod said it “means more chances to compete for something special.”

The news was less welcomed by others. Mid-American Conference Commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said he has long advocated for more access to the playoff, though he is uncertain expansion strengthens college football as a whole.

“We must also recognize that a larger playoff does not necessarily mean greater financial benefits for all conferences and institutions, making the long-term sustainability of the entire FBS an important consideration,” Steinbrecher said. “The expansion of the playoff creates opportunities, but a larger playoff alone does not define progress.”

The Mountain West acknowledged the “significant change to the structure of the college football postseason” but held off on further comment.

The postseason for college football is now crowded with tournaments, from the NAIA (20 teams) to Division III (40 teams), Division II (32) and the two tournaments in Division I (12 in the current CFP and 24 in the Championship Subdivision).

The Group of Six has nearly 70 teams. Would there be an appetite — and TV time and revenue — for a Group of Six-only postseason?

“I got asked about the Group of Six playoff. I’m all for that. I think that would be a good thing if we want to let one in there, that’s fine," Wyoming coach Jay Sawvel said Monday, according to WGWN-TV. “A year ago, we let two Group of Six teams in and one of them had a 30-point road loss, to me, don’t do that because then it doesn’t show well. And then they get in the playoff and lose big and everybody bags on Group of Six teams.”

The 12-team playoff launched in 2024 with spots reserved for the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids. Year two followed the same format, which cleared room for American Conference-winner Tulane and Sun Belt champion James Madison, both higher-ranked than ACC winner Duke. Tulane lost 41-10 to Ole Miss and JMU 51-34 to Oregon on the opening weekend.

First-round blowouts led to another shift, this one now proving to be a one-year deal: The 12-team format in 2026 consists of the Power Four conference champions, the highest-ranked Group of Six team and seven at-large bids, with Notre Dame guaranteed a slot if it's a top-12 CFP team.

The scramble for the CFP is of course financial along with the marketing and recruiting benefits. Last season, conferences received $4 million for each team that made the playoff and another $4 million for each team that advanced to the quarterfinals. The figures went up from there. Revenue distribution under the new model has not yet been made public, though any paycheck is often welcome in a revenue-sharing era with plenty of schools fighting to keep up.

All Power Four conferences have said this season will be the last for their conference championship games . None of the Group of Six leagues have made such an announcement — yet.

“One of the greatest attributes of college football is the significance of its regular season," Steinbrecher said. "Every game matters. Rivalries matter. Conference championships matter. As we expand the postseason, we must be careful not to diminish the very qualities that have made college football such a compelling sport.”

Rich Clark, executive director of the CFP, argued that it won’t just be the Power Four that will see the benefits from expansion.

“I do think that it provides opportunity for the non-autonomous four conferences,” Clark said. “The highest-ranked G6 team will have an automatic qualification into the playoff, but also expanding it just as at-large members, because there will be 19 at-large team selections, it opens that pathway up even more for those G6 teams.”

That opportunity will ultimately be shaped by how the selection committee weighs Group of Six teams against the Power Four programs competing for the same at-large spots. How an easy mid-major win stacks up against a hard-fought loss to a top-ranked power conference team won’t become clear until the new format is put to the test.

“I have no idea how the Group of Six is going to be viewed really vs. a three-loss Big Ten or SEC team,” North Dakota State coach Tim Polasek said. “I just know this: We’re extremely excited to be a part of it.”

AP College Football Writer Eric Olson contributed to this report.

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