Analysis: Trump's solution to Republicans' midterm troubles is more Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — During his first address to a Republican convention in 2016, Donald Trump had an audacious message to a nation yearning for change: “I alone can fix it.”

A decade later and nearing the midpoint of his final term, Trump is still pitching himself as America’s essential repairman. It’s a strategy that’s helped him overcome daunting odds before but now guarantees this year’s midterms will be a referendum on his unpopular presidency. And it previews how difficult it will be for his party to prepare for a future without him as he shows little interest in ceding the stage.

On Thursday, the final night of Republicans' unusual midterm convention, Trump said he would speak for just a few minutes. Instead he held court for a half hour, repeating many of the points he made in a nearly two-hour speech the previous night, then lingered as balloons dropped from the ceiling and his favorite opera singer serenaded the crowd.

“You've got to do me a favor,” he implored at one point. “You've got to get out and vote, and you're going to pretend I'm on the ballot. Because in a way, I'm on the ballot.”

That reflects Trump’s central challenge heading into the final stretch of the midterms. No one since Ronald Reagan has galvanized Republicans — and helped attract a broader range of voters to the party — quite like Trump. But that success only happens when Trump himself is on the ballot. He has repeatedly struggled to translate his personal popularity to success in competitive races when his election is not on the line.

During Trump’s first midterms in 2018, Republicans lost 40 seats in the U.S. House. When he was off the ballot again in 2022, some of his marquee picks, such as Doug Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania, lost their races.

It’s a vulnerability Trump is well aware of.

“There’s no reason for it,” he said of the historic headwinds a president’s party faces in the midterms. “It’s something deep down and psychological.”

Trump is betting that Republicans can maintain their grip on power by returning to a handful of now familiar moves ranging from depicting political opponents in catastrophic terms to leaning in on culture war issues involving transgender people. A pledge to send every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate faces numerous political and financial hurdles but still garnered headlines at a time when it's tough to capture voter attention.

He’s also highlighting what is, in his telling, the most successful opening stretch of any presidential term as he tamed immigration, saved the country from a nuclear-armed Iran and presided over economic success. All the while, he spruced up Washington and added a ballroom to the White House that, much to his chagrin, he’ll only be able to enjoy for a few months before his term ends.

That grandiose pitchman style, honed for years as a New York tabloid staple and reality television star, has propelled him through a cascade of crises, including two impeachments, several federal indictments and a criminal conviction. It’s helped him connect with voters drawn to his confidence and bend reality to his vision.

But a protracted war, economic anxiety and accusations of corruption and personal enrichment are testing Trump’s strategy. Just a third of U.S. adults approve of how he is handling the presidency, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s down slightly from 37% in June and well below the 42% who approved of his work when he took office.

Majorities also disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration, issues that were central to Trump’s election in 2024.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found 46% of registered voters said the Democratic Party was more in touch with the concerns of most people in the U.S., compared with 35% who said the same for the Republican Party.

Trump is working against a sobering reality that most presidents encounter around the sixth year of their time in the White House. Voters become restive for change and ambitious politicians begin gaming out ways to launch campaigns of their own.

Presidents can sometimes find themselves sidelined in these final years. During the 2000 and 2008 campaigns, Al Gore and John McCain campaigned sparingly with the presidents they were aiming to succeed, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush .

Trump is already fighting that fate. He’s pledged to campaign in the coming weeks for Republicans in competitive races, something many candidates might not welcome as they seek to distance themselves from Trump.

And as the early contours of the next presidential campaign take shape, loyalty to Trump is again proving key. Vice President JD Vance, a potential 2028 candidate, hailed him on Thursday as the “toughest S.O.B. in American politics," earning a roar of applause from the Republican faithful.

That admiration for Trump could prove an asset in a Republican primary, where supporters of the president will wield significant influence. But it could leave the party's ultimate nominee in a difficult position in a general election, especially if Trump's popularity doesn't rebound.

After all, presidential politics can take unexpected turns.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a potential White House candidate who pointedly refused to endorse Trump at the 2016 convention, praised him Thursday. Commemorating the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he noted the twists of history.

“In 2001, it would have been hard to imagine where we are today,” he said. “Who could have predicted that the extraordinary Donald Trump would be president?”