AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — In Virginia, two incumbent Republicans are fending off tough Democratic challengers in U.S. House races in a difficult midterm climate for the GOP. Voters will also decide whether to reelect their Democratic U.S. Senator to a fourth term and decide a ballot measure that would codify reproductive rights in the state constitution.

A Democratic win in either congressional race could push the party closer to regaining control of the chamber. Democrats need to win three more seats than in 2024 to claim the majority and see President Donald Trump’s plunging approval rating as an opportunity to score wins in competitive districts.

The 2nd Congressional District, which includes the city of Virginia Beach and the Virginia portion of the Delmarva Peninsula, has one of those competitive races. Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican incumbent, faces former Rep. Elaine Luria, a Democrat who lost the seat to Kiggans in 2022 after redistricting. Kiggans won that race by less than four percentage points.

The 2nd Congressional District has passed between Republicans and Democrats several times in the past few decades. In 2024, Kiggans defeated a different Democratic challenger by a margin of less than four percentage points. In the same election, Trump won the district over Kamala Harris by less than one-half of one percentage point. In the 2025 gubernatorial race, the area favored Democrat Abigail Spanberger .

Kiggans, a Navy veteran endorsed by Trump, has campaigned on her record in office and has attacked Luria for opposing a proposal to ban congressional stock trading in 2022, a position the latter reversed this year. Luria, also a Navy veteran, has highlighted her opponent’s support for Trump’s war in Iran, a resonant issue in a district with a significant military population.

Luria, who campaigned alongside Virginia U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, had raised about $8 million as of mid-October, according to financial disclosure documents. Kiggans, who campaigned with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., raised about $7.6 million.

In Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Rob Wittman, a nine-term Republican, faces what may be his most difficult reelection battle yet against Democrat Shannon Taylor, a county prosecutor. The bellwether district in the eastern part of the state, which includes Jamestown, Williamsburg, Yorktown and some of Richmond's suburbs, reelected Wittman by a margin of nearly 13 percentage points in 2024.

Wittman has asked voters to reelect him so he can continue being a voice for the district in Congress. Taylor has focused her campaign on rooting out corruption in Washington and painted Wittman as benefiting from a corrupt system.

Wittman has raised slightly more money than Taylor — $5.4 million to her $4.6 million. Millions more in outside spending have flowed into the race.

Virginia is one of four states with abortion-related measures on the ballot in the 2026 midterm elections. If approved, Question 1 would enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution, including the right to an abortion. The amendment would let state lawmakers regulate abortions in the third trimester of pregnancy, but also require that they be allowed under certain circumstances, including if the fetus is unviable or if necessary to protect the life of the mother. If the amendment passes, it could allow state courts to strike down laws restricting abortion. Virginia is the only southern state that did not enact an abortion ban after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 .

The ACLU of Virginia and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia support the amendment, while the Family Foundation of Virginia and the Virginia Catholic Conference oppose it.

In the U.S. Senate race, three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Warner is expected to be reelected. He is running against Bert Mizusawa, a Republican and retired Army major general who advised Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide ballot measures, House of Delegates and Arlington County Board.

About 3.4 million votes were cast in Virginia's 2025 race for governor.

About 42% of votes in the 2025 race for governor in Virginia were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for Virginia can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

Virginia jurisdictions are expected to vary in terms of how and when they release results. The first vote updates of the night are expected to include results from all vote types: early in-person, mail and in-person on Election Day.

A small number of jurisdictions may include all or almost all of their early and absentee voting results in their first vote update of the night. Most counties and cities begin releasing at least some results from in-person Election Day voting in the first update and over the course of the night.

In the 2025 general election for Virginia governor, the AP first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 1:52 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts. A recount may be requested if the margin between a candidate and the apparent winner is 1 percentage point or less. A recount may be requested on a ballot question if the margin of victory is 50 votes or fewer, or 1 percentage point or less, whichever is greater. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .