Frank Reich says analytics backed Jets' failed fourth-and-1 shotgun run vs. Packers

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) — Frank Reich knew the question was coming — and the New York Jets ' offensive coordinator had the supporting statistics ready.

His decision to line up quarterback Geno Smith in the shotgun against Green Bay on Sunday with running back Braelon Allen next to him on fourth-and-1 at the 50-yard line in a tie game with 1:20 left in regulation had some Jets fans scratching their heads.

They turned downright livid when Smith handed off to Allen, who was stuffed for no gain and a turnover on downs. New York eventually lost 20-17 in overtime and coach Aaron Glenn was under heavy scrutiny for some late-game decisions and his clock management.

Reich also faced criticism, even coming off a terrific performance in the season-opening win at Tennessee that included using a five tight-end set that hadn't been seen in the NFL in at least 20 years.

“The bottom line is I’m always going to call what I think is the best play in that moment," Reich said Thursday. "And that’s what I did in the game. When it doesn’t work out, it’s, sure, you’re upset about it. You think, ‘Ah, maybe I should have called something else.’ Because it didn’t work. But you’ve got to live with the results.

“I’m comfortable and confident in the calls that we called.”

Reich then offered some “context,” saying the analytics the team gathered over three- and five-year studies showed that — excluding quarterback sneaks — shotgun runs on fourth-and-1 had a 71% conversion rate, while plays run under center in the same situations had a 67% conversion rate.

“So, the gun run's actually better," Reich said. "And the reason it's better, percentage-wise, over a five-year period is because there's a threat of a pass and they (the defense) don't get so tight. We had that perspective going in.”

The former NFL quarterback and longtime offensive coordinator added that analytics over the same five-year study show that the conversion rate on a pass on fourth-and-1 is 57% compared to 71% on a run.

“Now, trust me, we’re going to throw it on fourth-and-1 some,” Reich said. “Maybe this week, maybe not.

“Unless you’re an elite quarterback sneak team, and there’s only three or four of those or however many there are, there’s a couple and they’re really elite at it,” he added. “But if you’re not one of those, the analytics would say a gun run — a gun direct run — is the best percentage call in that play. And for us, that’s what we had, that’s what I had the most conviction in. We didn’t make it. So that’s what you’ve got to live with.”

Reich explained that the Jets needed nearly a full yard for the first down, as opposed to a half-yard, so a quarterback sneak didn't appear to be in play.

“On fourth-and-1 with the game on the line,” he said, “I made the best call that I thought we were going to get.”

Reich was also asked if he considered running a tush push-type play with versatile tight end Kenyon Sadiq.

“That’s a very fair question and with Sadiq in particular, I would say — and I say this with the utmost respect — the man didn’t practice,” Reich said of the rookie who missed most of training camp recovering from hernia surgery. “He had one week of practice before the season started. Are we going to put him out there on a quarterback sneak on a rainy day or any tight end on a rainy day where a quarterback snap, that is not what they do for a living, especially on a rainy day?”

The Jets will look to bounce back against a Detroit defense that ranks second to last in the NFL with 457.5 yards allowed per game. The Lions are 28th against the run and 31st vs. the pass.

New York also has no giveaways through its first two games, an overwhelming positive for a team that struggled mightily last season before Reich took over the offense and Smith was brought in as the quarterback.

“We played a couple pretty decent defenses and had some really good moments in those two games,” Reich said. “Had some really good moments, but there’s obviously a lot of room for improvement as well.”

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