NIL-fueled parity shakes up title odds, with 7 teams at 11-1 or better to win title

LAS VEGAS (AP) — There was a time not long ago when maybe four and possibly five schools had a realistic shot at the national championship — and Indiana certainly wasn't one of them.

But name, image and likeness has changed the landscape of college football , bringing more teams into the mix.

And the odds reflect that.

Seven teams are, depending on the sportsbook, 11-1 odds or greater to win the national title when it's played Jan. 25 in Las Vegas.

No. 1 Ohio State, No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 5 Texas are each +650 or better to win it all at the major sportsbooks, with No. 6 Indiana, No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Georgia not far behind. No. 7 Miami is 10-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook and 11-1 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

“I think it was kind of evident even last year where it was more parity,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars' head of football. “I don't think going in that everybody thought Miami and Indiana were going to be playing for the national championship, and that's spilled over into this season as well, where it's a little bit more wide open.”

Sportsbooks have to keep up on player movement thanks to the transfer portal, which can seriously affect odds. There also have been a handful of court cases that have determined if some players are eligible to play and others are not.

“It's harder in this offseason,” BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said. “If you're up to date on the news faster than — forget just us — anywhere else on the market, you can find a really good number before the season. But then a lot of variance comes into play."

One reason Notre Dame is +650 at BetMGM and 6-1 at DraftKings and Caesars is because the independent doesn't have the gauntlet of a schedule Big Ten and Southeastern Conference schools tend to face.

The Fighting Irish don't play a ranked team until they visit No. 14 BYU on Oct. 17. No. 7 Miami on Nov. 7 and No. 19 SMU on Nov. 21, both at home, are the other ranked opponents.

Johnny Avello, director of race and sports for DraftKings, pushed back some on the notion Notre Dame has an easy path, pointing out the Irish two years ago lost to Northern Illinois .

“Their path's not bad,” Avello said. “If you're in the SEC, certainly you've got a tough game almost each and every week. You're in the Big Ten, you've got a tough game each and every week. Being an independent, they have a schedule with a couple of decent teams. They should win at least 10 this year.”

If Ohio State or Notre Dame don't win the national championship, Texas is the team most likely to capture the title, if the odds are to be believed. The Longhorns are +650 at three major sportsbooks.

Oregon is close behind at +750 at DraftKings and Caesars and 8-1 at BetMGM.

Both programs have been among the nation's best, but haven't been able to close the deal in recent seasons.

Magee, however, said a credible case can be made this season is different, saying both rosters are championship level. Bettors agree.

“I think they're No. 3 and 4 in most-bet teams to win the title,” Magee said. “I don't think a lot of bettors are looking at what's happened in the past at these schools.”

Gamblers often like to look for big payoffs in futures bets, and Avello said a good amount of money has come in on Oklahoma State (400-1), Kentucky (450-1) and UCLA (750-1), the hope being they will be the next Indiana.

The Hoosiers were 100-1 at one point last season winning the title.

“We all overlooked them,” Avello said. “They had better players than we thought. You’re not going to get a team like an Illinois or a Kansas State to win it all ... because you’ve got to have the horses to get it done. The playoff, it’s not a one-game affair. Once you make it, you have to win (three or) four games and that’s not easy.”

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is slightly favored over Texas QB Arch Manning to win the Heisman Trophy.

Bettors might remember last season, however, when then-Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza seemed to come out of nowhere to win the Heisman , defying preseason odds where he was as high as 60-1.

“We'll see a lot of action those first couple of weeks as that market starts to shape up and you start to see one candidate start to pull away a little bit more,” Feazel said. “Right now, 7-1 being the favorite, that's still pretty high until the first couple of weeks where we'll start to see a 3- or 4-1.”

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