Progressive Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers duel for key Michigan Senate seat

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are testing two sharply different theories for winning one of the nation’s premier swing states Tuesday in a white-knuckle contest that may determine control of the Senate.

El-Sayed is aiming to prove that an unapologetically progressive agenda centered on universal healthcare can win a general election in a state President Donald Trump carried two years ago. The former Wayne County health director narrowly defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in an expensive and bruising Democratic primary.

Michigan’s diverse electorate has created a complicated political battleground, with both nominees seeking statewide support while navigating divisions among the state’s large Jewish, Muslim and Black communities. Bitter disputes over U.S. support for Israel and accusations of antisemitism overshadowed the race, culminating in Stevens' shocking endorsement of Rogers in the final days of the race.

For Rogers, the race is a second chance after he lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate election by fewer than 20,000 votes. This time, the former congressman must win without Trump as a galvanizing force at the top of the ballot and as high gas prices and other costs have weighed on Republicans nationally.

El-Sayed has sought to expand Michigan’s Democratic coalition with a populist message, hoping to drive up youth turnout after months of campus rallies, while winning over disillusioned Republicans in rural areas.

No Republican has won a Senate race in the state since 1994, but the retirement of two-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters created a rare opening. The race has become a focal point in the national fight for Senate control, drawing well over $100 million in advertising since the Aug. 4 primary. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the majority, and losing any could put that out of reach.

The campaign has also featured some of the year’s most inflammatory rhetoric . Republicans repeatedly have sought to link El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator, to terrorist organizations, despite no evidence of such ties. Trump repeatedly called him a “jihadist.”

While Stevens' endorsement of Rogers stunned Democrats, it reflected tensions that had simmered since the primary for Stevens and some of her supporters. A four-term representative of parts of metro Detroit, she received significant support in the August contest from Black and Jewish communities in those areas.

El-Sayed had to work in the post-primary sprint to win over those voters. In September, Kamala Harris, the first Black vice president, campaigned with El-Sayed and told a gathering of the NAACP that he could be a “stopgap” on Trump. Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president, joined a rally for El-Sayed and other Democrats in Michigan days before Election Day.

He has also been criticized by some in the Jewish community, and Stevens said her defection came after he didn't do enough to address the community's concerns.

El-Sayed has been a vocal critic of Israel and was criticized for his response to a March attack on a Michigan synagogue, when he said that “hurt people hurt people.” The attacker had lost family in an Israeli strike in Lebanon. El-Sayed later said that he was “sorry” to “anyone who feels like my comments might have been hurtful.”

Republicans have highlighted El-Sayed's ties to Hasan Piker, a popular political streamer who has made inflammatory comments about Israel, Jews and the Sept. 11 attacks. El-Sayed appeared with Piker multiple times during the primary but has since distanced himself from him .

El-Sayed faced nearly $60 million in spending from outside groups during the August primary against Stevens. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC , spent nearly $30 million, its largest investment in a single race.

Republicans opted to nominate Rogers again after his razor-thin 2024 loss, when then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin prevailed even as Trump won Michigan by more than a percentage point. Once a CNN contributor who criticized Trump, Rogers has aligned himself more closely with the president in recent years.

Unlike two years ago, Rogers faced no viable Republican primary challenge this cycle, allowing him to spend months raising money and preparing for the general election while Democrats battled through their costly and divisive primary.

But the political environment has presented fresh challenges. The war with Iran continues as everyday costs, particularly at the gas pump, remain high. Trump has also waged a trade war with neighboring Canada, a longtime economic partner of Michigan.

Rogers has focused more on attacking El-Sayed than touting Republican achievements in Congress and the White House, even as he has campaigned alongside Trump, including at an Oct. 25 rally in Port Huron.

A former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee who built much of his career around national security, Rogers has had to navigate the unpopular war with Iran while remaining aligned with Trump.

“The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Rogers wrote on social media in September.