Republicans' grip on Texas is on the line in a close US Senate race between Paxton, Talarico

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — A showdown in Texas between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, one of the marquee U.S. Senate races of the midterms, had Democrats pushing to break a 30-year losing streak in the state on Tuesday and Republicans scrambling to defend both a pivotal stronghold and an increasingly fragile Senate majority.

The campaign has tested voters’ tolerance for past scandals that have shadowed Paxton, Texas' Republican attorney general, and whether Talarico's religion-infused populist message can blaze a path to victory for Democrats in a state that President Donald Trump easily carried two years ago.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994, but a unique cascade of events set the stage for one of the nation's most heated and expensive campaigns, and Republicans fear they could lose.

Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a combative primary with the help of a late endorsement from Trump , even though Senate Republican leaders feared that Paxton would be far more vulnerable because of his years of legal troubles including accusations of corruption.

At the same time, voters have become increasingly frustrated over high costs — for gas, groceries, healthcare and more — and the war with Iran, sapping Trump's and Republicans' popularity.

Talarico centered his campaign on portraying Paxton as the face of a corrupt political system that allows billionaires to wield outsized political power while prices rise for the rest of the country. He also tried to woo moderate Republicans and independents put off by Paxton.

Paxton pinned his hopes on firing up Republican voters, who have historically outnumbered Democrats in Texas, to turn out at the polls. He campaigned with Trump several times, and the president amplified Paxton's attack that Talarico is too progressive for the Lone Star State because of past statements including that God is “nonbinary.”

The political climate was already favorable for Democrats from coast to coast this year, with many people upset with Trump on issues such as the war in Iran and the soaring costs of living.

Paxton was further weighed down by a string of legal and ethical problems , including being impeached in 2023 and then acquitted by his own party on corruption accusations, along with a federal corruption investigation that was closed with no charges. During the impeachment trial, there were allegations of marital infidelity, and his wife is now divorcing him on “biblical grounds.”

Talarico hammered Paxton on those ethical questions in an attempt to win over Republican and independent voters. But Talarico rarely maligned the Republican Party. The issue is less a question of right versus left, he often said, and more about the uber-rich versus everyone else.

Talarico's argument was supercharged after Elon Musk, the world's richest man and Texas resident, became a major donor in the race. Musk contributed a total of $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the same amount that the fund then gave to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton’s campaign. Musk also gave $10 million to the Paxton-supporting Lone Star Liberty PAC.

While the investment helped blanket the state in anti-Talarico ads, the Democrat started naming Musk's donation in his stump speech as the epitome of the moneyed influence that he says has corrupted politics.

While Paxton discussed rising costs, he focused more on framing Talarico as too far-left for Texas.

Paxton, considered a culture war pugilist in some conservative circles, pointed to the Democrat naming his favorite drag queen in Texas and previously stating there were six sexes.

Talarico has worked to moderate his past statements on gender questions, calling them “cringey." He said he opposes transgender athletes playing women’s sports if it “endangers safety or fairness.”

He often took a pastoral approach with voters, presenting himself as an earnest listener to their concerns and pledging to salve them if elected.

Culture war issues have helped propel Paxton to prominence as a state attorney general eager to use his position for partisan aims, including leading a failed lawsuit that sought to overturn the 2020 election after Trump claimed without evidence that it was stolen.