Talarico rallies as his Texas US Senate race against Paxton enters final weeks

James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, is set to rally with supporters Thursday, as his underdog bid to become the first Democrat to win statewide in over 30 years heads into its final weeks.

The national conversation around Talarico’s campaign has evolved over the past months. Initially, the state lawmaker was considered just the latest of several Democratic candidates over the past years who gave the party a brimming hope of flipping Texas, only for that hope to deflate come Election Day.

Now, Talarico is seen as a real contender to win the seat against Republican candidate Ken Paxton . Talarico’s success so far can partly be chalked up to voters’ apprehensions toward Paxton, who faced questions in his past over corruption , including being impeached by his own party in the Texas legislature. He was later acquitted.

Talarico has also far outpaced Paxton in fundraising, bringing in a whopping $64 million in the third quarter, which his campaign described as a record for a Senate candidate.

The prospect of a flagship Republican state turning blue doesn't just fill Democrats with glee and Republicans with alarm. Whoever wins will help determine which party controls the Senate in President Donald Trump's final two years in office, making it either smooth sailing for Trump or a bog of investigations and opposition.

The rally Thursday in the small city of San Marcos south of Austin follows nine days earlier this month when Talarico was out of the public eye due to the flu. His absence sparked a swirl of conspiracies online, including the false claim that he was at a mental health treatment center in Ohio. Shared by conservative social media influencers, the claim quickly fell apart at closer inspection.

Talarico, a seminarian and state representative, has also tread a very careful path — as nonpartisan as he can — from the major metros that already tilt Democratic, along the border towns that flipped from blue to red last election, and to the rural Republican high plains and desert.

Talarico has distanced himself from former President Joe Biden's administration and his own party, and while progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders is coming to Texas this month, he won't be sharing a stage with Talarico.

Talarico's strategy is to take direct aim at what voters say they are most concerned about: the costs that have inexorably grown for years.

Trump and Republicans are well aware of Talarico's ability to connect with voters, and Paxton's struggles to find purchase in what would otherwise be a relatively easy race for a Republican. The president has made several trips to Texas to rally for Paxton, and the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP's leadership super PAC, has spent over $124 million on ads promoting him.