AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alaska on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Alaska voters will decide one of the nation's most competitive Senate races on Tuesday as the Justice Department escalates a criminal investigation into whether one of the candidates was recruited to run by the campaign of another in an effort to confuse voters.

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a strong challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in his bid for a third term. Among the two other candidates to advance out of the Aug. 18 primary is a former teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan . The New York Times reported that Peltola's campaign appeared to be involved in recruiting the challenger Daniel J. Sullivan, allegedly to siphon votes away from the incumbent Dan Sullivan in this marquee Senate race that could decide control of the chamber.

President Donald Trump announced on Oct. 23 before the Times story published that he ordered the Department of Justice to file suit to block certification of the election if Peltola wins. Daniel J. Sullivan remains on the ballot.

Sen. Sullivan appears on ballots as “Dan S. Sullivan” alongside the labels of “Republican” and “Incumbent.” Challenger Sullivan is listed as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without any party affiliation indicated, although he filed for office as a Republican.

State Republican Party officials had previously tried unsuccessfully to block Daniel J. Sullivan from appearing on the primary ballot, accusing him of colluding with Democrats to help elect Peltola. An Alaska court overturned efforts to boot the challenger from the primary ballot.

Alaska voters will also decide races for House, governor, state Legislature and two statewide ballot measures.

Although the state has a long history of favoring Republican candidates for federal office, this year marks the third consecutive election cycle in which Alaskans could swing the balance of power in Washington. Peltola has been on the ballot in each of those cycles.

Peltola placed first among 16 contenders in the state’s Aug. 18 all-party primary, in which the top four vote-getters advanced to the general election regardless of party affiliation. She received 49.5% of the vote, followed by Sen. Sullivan with 41.4%. Daniel J. Sullivan and a fourth candidate advanced to the general election with a combined vote share of less than 4% of the primary vote.

If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the winner will be determined by ranked choice voting , as is the case for all federal and state general elections in Alaska following a new law approved by voters in 2020.

The incumbent senator was first elected in 2014 after defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, 48% to 46%. He won his 2020 reelection with 54% of the vote and a 13-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

Peltola was first elected in a 2022 special election to replace longtime Republican congressman Don Young, who died after almost 50 years in office . She defeated Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich in Alaska’s first statewide ranked choice voting election. She was elected to a full term later that year but lost her 2024 reelection bid to Begich, who is the nephew of the former U.S. senator.

Peltola has far outraised and outspent Sen. Sullivan by more than two to one.

In the state’s lone congressional seat, Nick Begich is running for a second term against commercial fisherman and former Bristol Bay Borough School Superintendent Bill Hill and two others. Hill is running as an independent, but he has the backing of several local union organizations as well as Anchorage pastor Matt Schultz, the top Democrat in the race before he suspended his campaign and endorsed Hill. Begich placed first in the primary with about 45% of the vote, followed by Hill with about 33%.

A New Jersey man, Eric Hafner, is running as a Democrat, but he is serving a 20-year prison sentence in New York for threatening various New Jersey officials and making false bomb threats. He received about 4% of the primary vote.

Three Republicans and one Democrat are running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. The Republicans are former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor and business owner and conservative activist Bernadette Wilson. The Democrat in the race is former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

Kreiss-Tomkins was the top vote-getter in the primary with about 23% of the vote in a 17-candidate field. Placing second was former Democratic state Sen. Tom Begich with about 21% of the vote, followed by Wilson with 10% and Bronson with about 8%. Begich withdrew from the race on Aug. 31 so that Democratic voters could unite behind Kreiss-Tomkins. Begich’s withdrawal opened up a general election slot for Taylor, who placed fifth in the primary with about 7% of the vote.

Tom Begich is the brother of Mark Begich and the uncle of Nick Begich.

Voters will also decide two statewide ballot measures. One would repeal the state’s ranked choice voting law. The other would amend existing state law to specify that only citizens may vote in elections.

Half of Alaska’s 20 state Senate seats and all 40 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republican lawmakers outnumber Democratic lawmakers, but both chambers are organized by multiparty coalitions rather than along strict party lines.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is midnight and 1 a.m. ET. Almost all polls in the state close at midnight ET, but one polling location in the Aleutian Islands closes at 1 a.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for Senate, House, governor, state Senate, state House and two statewide ballot measures.

About 262,000 votes were cast in Alaska's 2022 Senate election.

About 35% of the vote in the 2022 Senate election was cast early in-person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Alaska can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

Alaska is expected to release a mix of in-person Election Day and early in-person voting results in its first vote update of the night. Typically, nearly all in-person Election Day results and in-person early voting results are released by the last update of the night, with the bulk of mail voting results released in the days following election night.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in Alaska at 1:07 a.m. ET, or seven minutes after the final polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway mark at about 2:07 a.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday morning, with about 75% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Alaska are automatic in the event of a tie vote. Candidates may also request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .