AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs of Arizona seeks a second term Tuesday but faces a challenge from Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. Voters will also decide a full slate of contests, including congressional and state legislative races that could shift the balance of power both in Washington and in the state government.

The Arizona governorship is a top takeover opportunity for Republicans in a midterm environment in which voters historically have punished the party occupying the White House. The winner's statewide political organization could play an important role in the 2028 presidential campaign, when Arizona again is expected to be a critical battleground.

Hobbs was elected in 2022 , defeating Republican Kari Lake, 50.3% to 49.7%. The Associated Press declared Hobbs the winner six days after Election Day, though Lake never conceded. Of the seven Democratic governors in states Donald Trump carried in 2024, only two are up for reelection this year: Hobbs and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Biggs is serving his fifth term in Congress and previously chaired the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Endorsed by President Trump, he easily defeated eight-term Rep. David Schweikert and two others in the July 21 primary.

In the race to replace Schweikert in the 1st Congressional District, Republicans have nominated sportscaster and former Arizona Cardinals placekicker Jay Feely. Democrats again nominated former state Rep. Amish Shah, who received 48% of the vote against Schweikert in 2024.

Feely initially ran in the 5th Congressional District, but Trump endorsed another candidate and encouraged Feely to run in another district or for a different office. Feely switched to the 1st District, and Trump endorsed both him and another candidate in the race, who later dropped out to run for secretary of state.

The 1st Congressional District includes Scottsdale and parts of northern Phoenix and lies entirely within Maricopa County. In seeking reelection, Schweikert received 51.9% in 2024 and 50.4% in 2022. In the 2024 presidential contest, Trump received about 51% of the district's vote, compared with about 48% for then-Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

Another Republican-held seat central to Democratic hopes of retaking the House is the 6th Congressional District, where Rep. Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term. The Democratic nominee is Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza. Both were unopposed in their primaries.

Republican Rep. Eli Crane also is in a competitive reelection bid in the 2nd Congressional District. He faces a rematch with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. Crane won a second term in 2024 with nearly 55% of the vote, compared to just over 45% for Nez.

All 30 state Senate seats and all 60 state House seats are up for election. Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers. Democrats have not controlled the state Senate since 1992 or the state House since 1966, the last time the party controlled the governorship and both chambers simultaneously.

Maricopa County is the most populous of Arizona's 15 counties and by far the most influential in statewide elections. Home to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Mesa, it accounted for about 61% of the state's total vote in the 2024 presidential race. Pima County was a distant second with about 15%.

In statewide elections going back to 2012, Democrats have always carried four Arizona counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz. In each of those races, the candidate who carried Maricopa won statewide.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET. No results will be released before 10 p.m. ET or until all precincts have reported, whichever is first.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for House, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, treasurer, superintendent of public instruction, state mine inspector, corporation commissioner and state Supreme Court.

About 2.6 million votes were cast in Arizona's 2022 U.S. Senate election.

About 81% of the vote in the 2022 Senate election was cast in person early or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Arizona can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

In Arizona, county officials may begin processing and tabulating mail ballots before Election Day as soon as they arrive, and these are the first to be reported after polls close. Arizona counties tend to release all or almost all of their results from early in-person voting, as well as a significant amount of results from mail voting, in the first vote update of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day votes are reported.

Mail ballots that are delivered on Election Day take much longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close. In Maricopa County, about 20% of the nearly 1.6 million votes cast in the 2022 midterms were mail ballots dropped off on Election Day.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 10 p.m. ET, one hour after polls closed, which is the earliest release time allowed by law. The vote count reached the halfway mark at 10:12 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 6:30 a.m. ET Wednesday morning with about 66% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .