AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — California voters will elect a new governor on Tuesday and decide a handful of House races that could swing the balance of power in Congress. Also on the ballot is a statewide measure that would impose the nation’s first-ever tax on billionaires .

The proposal, known as Proposition 40, would authorize a one-time 5% tax on individuals with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Revenue from the program would go toward replacing cuts in federal healthcare funding.

The issue has divided some traditional alliances and created new ones. Supporters of the measure include Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West and the California Democratic Party, Opponents include Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Teachers Association, the state branch of Planned Parenthood and the California Republican Party.

Opponents of the measure have far outspent supporters, according to AdImpact.

In the race for governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton were the top vote-getters among 61 candidates in the June 2 all-party primary . Becerra is a former state attorney general and was Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden. Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who once served as a senior adviser to former Conservative Party British Prime Minister David Cameron. The winner will succeed Newsom, who is term-limited.

In the race for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House, a new congressional map favorable to Democrats has complicated the reelection bids of several Republican House incumbents. Voters approved the new district boundaries in a November 2025 referendum , which was a response to President Donald Trump’s effort in Texas and other states to boost his party’s chances of keeping their House majority.

Republicans hold a slight edge in the chamber, and the new districts could net Democrats an additional five seats.

In the 22nd Congressional District, Republican Rep. David Valadao seeks a seventh term against Democrat Randy Villegas. Valadao won his first three terms by comfortable margins until his narrow defeat in 2018. He won it back in 2020 and has held his seat for another three terms, although by much slimmer margins. The race is one of the most competitive in the country.

Also competitive is the open-seat race in the 48th Congressional District to replace Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who is retiring rather than seek a 13th term in a redrawn district.

Republicans are guaranteed to hold the 40th Congressional District, but the matchup between Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim will cost the party at least one incumbent.

The Trump administration has sued California election officials to block the processing of 20,000 ballots it alleges were cast by noncitizens until their citizenship can be verified. A district court judge on Tuesday rejected that request , then on Thursday appointed a special master to evaluate the administration’s claims. The Justice Department issued subpoenas to election officials on Thursday.

Once a reliably Republican state in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan years, California hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide federal office since 1988. The party has fared better in gubernatorial elections, winning six of the last 12 elections — including one recall election — for the state’s top office, but Democrats have held the seat for the last 16 years.

In statewide elections, Democrats tend to dominate in the heavily populated Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, while also winning by comfortable margins in the Sacramento and San Diego areas and along the Pacific Coast. Republicans tend to perform best in Northern California and in the Central Valley. The Inland Empire to the south is more competitive. Trump narrowly carried the area in the 2024 presidential election, while Democrats Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won in 2020 and 2016.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. PT, which is 11 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, Board of Equalization, state Senate, State House, mayor of Oakland, mayor of Los Angeles, Los Angeles County sheriff and 14 statewide ballot measures, including Proposition 40.

About 11 million votes were cast in 2022 gubernatorial election.

California elections are conducted predominantly by mail. About 90% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial election was cast early in-person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for California can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

All California counties are expected to release at least some or most of their mail voting results in the first vote report of the night, almost always before any in-person Election Day results are released. Roughly two of every five counties are also expected to release at least some early in-person results in the first vote report.

Since mail voting tends to favor Democrats and in-person Election Day voting tends to favor Republicans, the release of mail voting results at the start of the night could result in an early lead for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates may narrow the gap as more Election Day results are counted.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 11:12 p.m. ET, or 12 minutes after polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway mark at 12:56 a.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 4:24 a.m. ET Wednesday, with about 62% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in California. Any registered voter may request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

AP writers Safiyah Riddle and Eric Tucker contributed to this report.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .