AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of both chambers of Congress hangs in the balance Tuesday as Iowa voters decide competitive House and Senate races. Voters in the Hawkeye State are electing a new governor as well, giving Democrats hopes of ending a 16-year drought for the state’s highest office.

The retirement announcements of two of Iowa’s most prominent Republican elected officeholders, Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst, have rippled across the ballot, creating an opening for Iowa Democrats as politicians jockey for higher office.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed Ernst, whose 2014 victory helped secure a Republican Senate majority for the final two years of President Barack Obama’s administration. A win by Turek could help Democrats do the same for the rest of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Both Hinson and Turek easily won their parties’ nominations in the June 2 primary . Hinson received 74% of the vote against former state Sen. Jim Carlin, while Turek received about 63% against state Sen. Zach Wahls.

Turek has far outraised Hinson, bringing in about $18 million since July 1, compared to about $3.9 million for Hinson. But Hinson has remained competitive with help from deep-pocketed outside groups, including $36 million in ad spending by a super PAC affiliated with Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.

In the race for governor, Republican Zach Lahn faces Democrat Rob Sand . Lahn, an entrepreneur and private school co-founder , upset the Trump-endorsed candidate , Rep. Randy Feenstra , in the June primary . Sand, the state auditor and Iowa’s only Democrat in elected statewide office, was unopposed for the nomination.

Hinson’s Senate campaign has created an open-seat contest in the 2nd Congressional District. She won reelection in 2024 with 57% of the vote, but this year, the seat is among the most competitive in the nation.

In Iowa’s other hotly contested congressional seats, Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the 1st District and Zach Nunn of the 3rd District are both seeking reelection. Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who came within 1 percentage point of unseating her in one of the closest U.S. House races of 2024. Nunn faces a tough challenge from Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.

Trump received roughly 54% of the 2024 presidential vote in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts and about 52% of the 3rd District vote. He campaigned for Hinson, Lahn and other Republican candidates at a rally in Sioux City on Oct. 22.

Iowa began the millennium as a competitive presidential battleground, but the state made a hard turn toward Republicans as Trump carried the state three times, most recently in 2024 by a 13-point margin. It’s been more than a decade since Iowans elected either a Democratic governor or U.S. senator and 24 years since they elected Democrats to both offices in the same year.

In statewide elections, Democratic candidates tend to perform best in Iowa's population centers around Des Moines (Polk County), Cedar Rapids (Linn County), Iowa City (Johnson County), Ames (Story County) and Waterloo (Black Hawk County), while Republicans post wide margins in smaller, more rural counties across the state. Republicans also tend to do well in Woodbury County in western Iowa, where Trump held his rally.

Two key state battlegrounds are Dallas County, which is home to West Des Moines, and Scott County, which is home to Davenport.

Trump narrowly carried Dallas County all three times, never surpassing 51%. In his 2022 reelection bid for state auditor, Sand carried Dallas County by about 7 percentage points and narrowly lost Scott County. Vice President Kamala Harris lost Scott County by a wider margin in 2024, but Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both edged Trump there in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, state auditor, treasurer, agriculture secretary, attorney general, state Senate, state House and a statewide ballot measure.

About 1.2 million votes were cast in Iowa's 2022 U.S. Senate race.

About 30% of the vote in Iowa’s 2022 U.S. Senate race was cast early in-person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Iowa can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

About nine out of every 10 counties are expected to release all or almost all of their absentee-by-mail and in-person absentee voting results in their first vote updates of the night. A majority of counties also are expected to release at least some in-person Election Day counts at the start of the night.

In the largest counties of Polk, Scott and Black Hawk, the first reports are expected to include results from all vote types. In Linn, Johnson and Dallas counties, early in-person and mail results are expected before in-person Election Day results.

Ballots can be processed before Election Day. Tabulation can begin on Election Day before polls close or in some cases on the day before Election Day.

In the 2024 election, the AP first reported results at 9:01 p.m. ET, or one minute after polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway mark at 10:33 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 3:20 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates for statewide and federal offices may request a recount if the winning margin is less than 0.15% of the total vote. For all other offices, the required margin is less than 1% of the vote or 50 votes, whichever is smaller. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .