AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota Democrats will decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in another face-off between moderate and progressive candidates that could define the party’s identity heading into the midterm elections. Republicans will choose nominees they hope will end their 20-year drought in statewide elections.

The state has been at the center of a political maelstrom in President Donald Trump’s second term, as the Republican president has focused much of his ire on Minnesota and its Democratic leaders.

An ongoing fraud investigation into state childcare programs contributed to Democratic Gov. Tim Walz ending his reelection bid and has been a frequent topic among Republican candidates on the campaign trail. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown that resulted in the deaths of two U.S. citizens has been a defining issue for Democratic candidates.

Walz’s retirement announcement, as well as that of Democratic U.S. Sen. Tina Smith , triggered a reshuffling of races throughout the ballot.

In the race to replace Smith, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination. Smith has backed Flanagan, while Walz has not made an endorsement. Flanagan also has support from key figures in the party’s progressive wing, including U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar of the 5th Congressional District. Sanders is an independent but caucuses with Democrats.

Craig’s key supporters are Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Craig has about doubled Flanagan in overall fundraising. She also had about $3.6 million available to spend as of late July compared with about $1.1 million for Flanagan.

The Center Forward Committee and Unite to Win — two political action committees known for backing moderate Democrats — have spent at least $2.4 million on Craig’s behalf. The Center Forward Committee was founded by former Alabama U.S. Rep. Bud Cramer and supports what it describes as “pragmatic policymakers.” Unite to Win recently spent $4 million backing U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in her unsuccessful U.S. Senate primary bid against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

Flanagan’s largest backer in outside spending has been the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which has spent about $1.2 million on the race.

The Republican primary features nine candidates, including former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya ; former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who has the state party’s endorsement; and former professional basketball player Royce White, who was the Republican nominee for the state’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2024. Trump has not endorsed a candidate.

Tafoya raised about $5.3 million for her campaign and had about $1.3 million in the bank as of July 22, a larger haul than the rest of the Republican field combined.

In the race for governor, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for the Democratic nomination. She brought in $9.3 million for her campaign and had about $4.5 million in the bank as of July 20. Only three of Klobuchar’s six primary opponents filed campaign finance disclosures, and they reported having less than a combined $3,200 in the bank.

The nine-candidate Republican field includes state House Speaker Lisa Demuth , MyPillow founder and prominent 2020 election denier Mike Lindell , who has Trump’s endorsement , and healthcare executive Kendall Qualls, who has the state party’s backing.

Lindell outraised Demuth overall in the campaign, although Demuth sat atop a significantly larger war chest as of July 20.

Craig is the only member of Minnesota’s U.S. House delegation who isn’t running for reelection. Her upcoming departure has triggered a six-way Democratic primary to replace her in the 2nd Congressional District. The field includes state Rep. Kaela Berg, state Sen. Matt Klein and former state Sen. Matt Little. Klein leads the field in fundraising, followed by Little, who loaned his campaign $155,000.

The winner will face Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt, who is unopposed for the nomination.

Craig won reelection in 2024 with about 56% of the vote. Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 52% of the district vote in the 2024 presidential race against Trump.

All seats in both chambers of the Minnesota State Legislature are up in 2026. Democrats have a one-seat advantage in the 67-member state Senate, while Democrats and Republicans are deadlocked at 67 seats each in the state 134-member House.

Hennepin County, which is home to Minneapolis, is by far the state’s most populous and tends to contribute the most votes of any county in both Democratic and Republican statewide primaries. Neighboring Ramsey County, which is home to St. Paul, has the second-largest population but tends to be a bigger factor in Democratic primaries. Just north of the Twin Cities, Anoka County, which Trump carried in 2024 by about 4 percentage points, tends to be more influential in Republican primaries. Dakota, Washington, St. Louis and Olmsted counties are important primary battlegrounds for both parties.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s 2006 reelection was the last statewide contest Republicans have won in Minnesota. The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Minnesota was Norm Coleman in 2002.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, state Senate and state House.

Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. Eligible voters may register at the polls on Election Day or during the early voting period.

As of Aug. 3, there were about 3.9 million registered voters in Minnesota.

About 324,000 Democratic primary voters and about 194,000 Republican primary voters took part in the 2024 primaries for U.S. Senate. In the 2022 primaries for governor, about 432,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary and about 323,000 in the Republican primary.

About 23% of the vote in the 2024 state primary and about 20% of the 2022 primary vote was cast early in person or by mail.

As of Thursday, about 158,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

Counties tend to release results from early in-person and mail voting over the course of the night, along with results from in-person Election Day voting.

The state’s three largest counties of Hennepin, Ramsey and Dakota release relatively few results in their first vote updates, regardless of vote type.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 9:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 1:28 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Minnesota are not automatic, but the losing candidate may request one under certain circumstances. A publicly funded recount can be requested in federal, judicial or state constitutional offices, like governor, if the margin between the winning and losing candidate is less than 0.25% of the vote. For state legislative races, the required margin is less than 0.5% of the vote. In races in which fewer than 400 votes are cast, the margin is 10 votes or fewer. Candidates may pay for a recount in races in which the vote margin is beyond the threshold for a publicly funded recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .