AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — A St. Louis-area congressman faces a Democratic primary rematch Tuesday against the former congresswoman he previously ousted, a showdown that has again drawn the attention of a powerful pro-Israel organization .

The contest, as well as primaries for Missouri’s seven other U.S. House seats, will be the first held since Republican state lawmakers adopted a new congressional map backed by President Donald Trump that was designed to boost their party’s chances of keeping control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections.

In the St. Louis-based 1st Congressional District, freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell seeks a second term. He must first clear a strong primary challenge from his predecessor, former U.S. Rep. Cori Bush, who was a member of the group of progressive House members known as The Squad .

Bell defeated Bush in the 2024 primary by nearly 6 percentage points with the help of about $8.6 million in outside spending from the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, which promotes U.S.-Israel relations. Bush has been a vocal critic of Israel since its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack . The committee spent about $3.1 million in July against Bush and in support of Bell ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

The district is heavily Democratic. Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 78% of the district vote in her unsuccessful 2024 presidential run against Trump.

On the other side of the state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver is running for a 12th term on much different turf than the compact, Kansas City-based district he’s represented for more than 20 years. The Republican-controlled state Legislature’s mid-decade redistricting plan carved up heavily Democratic Kansas City among three districts and stretched what remained of Cleaver’s 5th Congressional District eastward to pick up heavily Republican areas. Cleaver is now running in a district that Trump carried with about 58% of the vote, compared with the current 5th District, which supported Harris with about 61% of the vote.

The six Republicans running to challenge Cleaver in November include former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, state Sen. Rick Brattin and former law professor Brett Hueffmeier. Burks led the Republican field in fundraising, more than tripling Brattin in both money raised and cash in the bank as of mid-July.

Voters will also decide the fates of four statewide ballot measures, including one that would make it harder to pass citizen-driven proposals to amend the state constitution and another that would eliminate the state income tax .

Amendment 4 would change the vote threshold required to pass voter-initiated ballot measures to amend the state constitution. Currently, only a simple statewide majority is needed to approve a constitutional amendment put on the ballot by voters. If Amendment 4 passes, a voter-initiated proposal would require a vote majority in each of the state’s congressional districts.

Amendment 5 would require the state Legislature to phase out individual income taxes in Missouri and expand sales taxes.

About half of Missouri’s 34 state Senate seats and all 163 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republicans hold roughly 2-1 ratio majorities in both chambers.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. CT, which is 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, state auditor, state Senate and state House, as well as in four statewide ballot measures.

Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary.

As of the 2024 general election, there were 4.4 million registered voters in Missouri.

About 586,000 Republican primary votes and about 322,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2022 primaries for state auditor.

By comparison, about 698,000 Republican votes and about 379,000 Democratic votes were cast in the 2024 primaries for governor.

About 12% of the vote in the 2024 state primary was cast early in person or by mail. Missouri does not have a long tradition of pre-Election Day voting. The state began allowing no-excuse early voting in the 2022 general election.

Local election officials tend to release all or almost all results from mail and early in-person voting in the first vote update of the night. In roughly half of Missouri’s counties, they are released along with some results from in-person Election Day voting. But the state’s most populous jurisdictions tend to release very few in-person Election Day results in the first vote update.

In the 2024 state primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:06 p.m. ET, or six minutes after polls closed. The vote count surpassed the halfway mark at about 10:20 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 12:26 a.m. ET, with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Missouri does not have automatic recounts, but candidates for federal, judicial and state offices, including state Legislature, may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the vote. Candidates for local offices may request a recount if the margin is less than 1% of the vote. A court may also order a recount as part of an election contest proceeding. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .