AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nebraska on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans in the ruby-red state of Nebraska have found themselves on the back foot this midterm season as their opponents have made surprising gains in key races.

Losing a Nebraska seat in the U.S. Senate or House could set up Republicans to lose control of Congress. Even if Republicans hold onto their seats, a near-loss could signal an erosion of Republican power in a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

Sen. Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent who took office in 2023, is running against Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union organizer. Cindy Burbank, the Democratic nominee, dropped out of the race in July.

Osborn has insisted he will not caucus with Democrats or Republicans, though he has received funds from Democratic donors, which Republicans contend is evidence that he will align with Democrats, if elected.

Ricketts was appointed in 2023 to the Senate to fulfill the term of Sen. Ben Sasse, a Republican who left Congress to become president of the University of Florida. The next year, Ricketts won the same seat in a special election by a margin of more than 25 percentage points, even more than President Donald Trump’s 20 percentage point margin of victory in the state.

But the optics of this midterm race have been challenging for Ricketts, as they have been for many Republicans on the ballot this year. The president's tariffs and rising fuel prices have hit the state’s agricultural and manufacturing industries hard. Ranchers and beef producers in Nebraska have opposed Trump’s attempts to address soaring beef prices by importing more beef , saying it would lower their profits. And Osborn has been able to use Ricketts’ family history as son of the founder of TD Ameritrade to portray him as political insider who is out of touch with Nebraskans’ concerns.

The contrast works well for Osborn , who embarked on a political career after leading a 77-day strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha, where he worked as a mechanic in 2021. Osborn, who had been an employee of the company for nearly two decades, was fired following the strike and went on to run for U.S. Senate against the incumbent Republican, Sen. Deb Fischer, in 2024. Though Fischer won the race, Osborn came within 7 percentage points of his opponent , a surprising outcome.

Ricketts has raised $14.5 million for his campaign as of mid-October, while Osborn had raised $11 million. Millions more in outside spending have poured into the race.

On the congressional map, Democrats are once again targeting Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where Democrat Denise Powell is up against Republican Omaha City Councilor Brinker Harding. They are running to fill the seat of retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate Republican who has criticized the Trump administration over Ukraine and tariffs.

Democrats have zeroed in on the district, which includes the state’s largest city, Omaha, and is sometimes called the “blue dot,” as a possible opportunity to flip a seat. In June, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it had added Powell to its “Red to Blue” program, which supports Democratic candidates running in competitive districts. The 2nd Congressional District was the only district in the state to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

The gubernatorial race in Nebraska has also become competitive. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, who took office in 2023, is being challenged by Democrat Lynne Walz, a former member of the state Senate.

Nebraska’s governorship has been held by Republicans since 1999, but the national political environment has prompted Trump to travel in and campaign. “When I’m on the ballot, people show up and you always win,” Trump said at an early October rally in Grand Island, appearing on stage with Ricketts, Pillen and Flood. “Pretend I’m on the ballot, please. We gotta go and win this.”

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. MT and 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, governor, U.S. House, attorney general, secretary of state, statewide ballot measures, state Legislature, state auditor, state treasurer and Workers’ Compensation Court judge.

About 667,000 votes were cast in the 2022 race for governor in Nebraska.

About 39% of all ballots cast in Nebraska’s 2022 race for governor were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for Nebraska can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

Most of Nebraska’s 93 counties are expected to release all or nearly all of their early and absentee vote results in the first vote update of the night, often before any results from in-person Election Day results are available. About half of counties are expected to release no or relatively few in-person Election Day results in their first report, including the most populous counties of Douglas and Lancaster.

The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 9 p.m. ET, as polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 10:55 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 3:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, 2024.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are automatic in Nebraska if the vote margin is 1% of the total vote or less in races where more than 500 votes are cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .