AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Competitive races in some of New York’s wealthiest congressional districts — the 3rd, 4th and 17th — could help decide whether Democrats regain control over the U.S. House.

Democrats need to gain three seats in the chamber to attain a majority. Among the top targets for potential pickups is the 17th District, where a two-term Republican is facing a difficult reelection battle in an unfavorable climate for Republicans.

The incumbent Republican in the race, Mike Lawler, is defending his seat against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran who served on the National Security Council. Lawler won the seat in 2022 by less than one percentage point. He increased his margin of victory to over six percentage points in 2024. Lawler was one of the few Republicans elected in a congressional district that also supported Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris for president.

The 17th District covers wealthy suburbs and working-class communities in the Lower Hudson Valley. Lawler has campaigned on his record in Congress, highlighting his work to cut taxes and decrease the cost of living. And though Lawler has campaigned with President Donald Trump, as the president’s approval rating continues to plunge , he has also sought to emphasize his bipartisan record and willingness to disagree with the president on certain issues. Conley has emphasized her working class roots, and pledged to cut costs and ban congressional stock trading, if elected.

The race has become one of the most expensive House races in the country this cycle. The Conley campaign had raised about $10.7 million as of mid-October, while Lawler had raised $10.3 million. Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.

In the 3rd District, which spans across northeast Queens and part of the North Shore of Long Island, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is facing a challenge from Republican Michael LiPetri, Jr., a former state assembly member endorsed by Trump. Suozzi and LiPetri also faced each other in the 2024 election, when Suozzi won by less than four percentage points. Suozzi took office in early 2024 after winning a special election to take over the seat of Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House after being indicted for wire fraud and money laundering. Suozzi previously represented the district from 2017 to 2023.

The wealthy 3rd District, which includes parts of Nassau, Suffolk and Queens counties, sided with Trump over Harris in the 2024 election, but favored former President Joe Biden in the election prior.

Suozzi has campaigned as a candidate willing to reach across the aisle and to fight Trump administration policies, especially those that have affected Americans' cost of living, like tariffs and the war in Iran. He has painted LiPetri as a Trump devotee. LiPetri has countered by casting himself as a down-to-earth candidate, attacking Suozzi as a career politician and criticizing his stock trades.

Suozzi has outraised LiPetri, amassing $7.6 million as of mid-October, compared to LiPetri’s $2.6 million. But outside groups have also spent millions to oppose Suozzi.

In the 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is being challenged by Republican Jeanine Driscoll, a local tax official. The district is on the South Shore of Long Island and is entirely within Nassau County. Gillen ousted then-GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 2024 election, after narrowly losing to him in 2022. In a blow to Republicans’ prospects in the district, D’Esposito declined to run for the seat again in 2026.

In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat, is running for a second full term as New York's first female governor. Her Republican challenger is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for governor, U.S. House, attorney general, ballot measures in New York City, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state Assembly and state comptroller.

About 5.8 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in New York.

About 26% of all ballots cast in New York’s 2022 race for U.S. Senate were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for New York can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

New York state counties and New York City are expected to release most or all of their results from early voting and mail voting in the first vote update of the night, usually before any results from in-person Election Day voting are released.

The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 9:01 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2024, one minute after polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 9:55 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:46 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In New York, an automatic recount is triggered in races where more than 1 million votes are cast if the margin of victory is less than 5,000 votes. A recount is triggered in smaller races if the margin of victory is 20 votes or less or 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .