AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Rhode Island’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee faces a tough Democratic primary challenge Wednesday in his bid for a second full term. Ocean State voters will also choose nominees for a full slate of federal, state and local offices.

McKee was elected governor by a wide margin in 2022 after first assuming the role in March 2021 when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo stepped down to become U.S. commerce secretary. He now is at risk of becoming the nation’s first elected governor since 2014 to lose renomination and the first in Rhode Island since 1994.

His challenger is Helena Buonanno Foulkes , a former longtime executive with Rhode Island-based CVS. She placed a close second behind McKee in the five-way 2022 Democratic primary. She is the niece of former Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut.

A top issue in the campaign has been McKee’s handling and oversight of the reconstruction of the Washington Bridge, which connects Providence and East Providence and carries 100,000 vehicles per day. McKee closed the westbound bridge in December 2023 after authorities discovered critical structural flaws. Authorities then determined in March 2024 that the bridge would need to be demolished and replaced . State officials initially estimated the bridge would be reopened to traffic this year, but that has since been pushed back to Nov. 2028 .

Campaign ads have also referenced a 2024 joint investigation of McKee by the state Attorney General Peter Neronha and the state police that found that the governor “personally and directly intervened” in the awarding of a multimillion-dollar state contract, but that he did not violate the state’s bribery or campaign finance laws. Neronha endorsed Foulkes in March.

McKee meanwhile has focused on Foulkes’ work at CVS and the company’s alleged role in fueling the opioid crisis .

Foulkes’ campaign fundraising and spending has almost doubled that of McKee’s, according to state campaign finance records. Independent polling from the University of New Hampshire shows that Foulkes has maintained a lead over McKee throughout the year, although in the latest poll many voters remained undecided.

McKee won the 2022 primary with 32.8% of the vote, just ahead of Foulkes with 29.9% and then-Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea with 26.2%. McKee narrowly carried most of the state’s most populous cities, including Warwick, Cranston, East Providence and Pawtucket. The state’s largest prize, Providence, went for Gorbea, with McKee placing second. Foulkes did best in most of the towns and cities around Narragansett Bay.

In the Republican primary, Aaron Guckian and Elaine Pelino are vying for the nomination. Guckian is a state trade association executive and was the nominee for lieutenant governor in 2022. He won the two-way primary that year with about 68% of the vote. Pelino is a former actress and first-time candidate. The state party has endorsed Guckian.

McKee won the 2022 general election with about 58% of the vote. It’s been 20 years since Rhode Island elected a Republican governor. Since then, no Republican gubernatorial nominee has won more than 39% of the vote in the general election.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state Senate, state House and Providence mayor.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.

As of Sept. 1, there were about 793,000 registered voters in Rhode Island. Among the 695,000 active registered voters, about 235,000 were Democrats, about 100,000 were Republicans and about 359,000 were unaffiliated.

About 59,000 Democratic primary votes and about 19,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries.

About 114,000 Democratic primary votes and about 21,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2022 primaries for governor.

About 32% of the 2024 Democratic U.S. Senate primary vote was cast early in-person or by mail, compared to about 22% in the Republican primary. Early and mail votes made up a smaller share in the 2022 gubernatorial primaries: 27% in the Democratic primary and 14% in the Republican primary.

As of Thursday, about 30,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 3,500 Republican primary ballots had already been cast in Wednesday’s election.

Rhode Island runs elections at the town and city level. All 39 jurisdictions are expected to release a mix of vote results from all vote types over the course of the night. The release of early in-person and mail voting is not frontloaded to the start of the night.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:05 p.m. ET, or five minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 10:20 p.m. ET with about 98% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in Rhode Island, but recounts may be requested depending on the vote margin. For contests with more than 100,000 votes cast, a recount may be requested if the vote margin is less than 0.5 percentage points or fewer than 1,500 votes, whichever is less. For races in which between 20,000 and 100,000 votes are cast, the vote margin must be less than 1 percentage point or fewer than 500 votes. If the total number of votes cast is less than 20,000, the margin to request a recount is 2 percentage points or fewer than 200 votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Wednesday, there will be 55 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .