AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats in midterm races across the country are seeking to capitalize on souring perceptions of President Donald Trump to gain seats in Congress and tip the balance of power in their favor as his approval ratings have plummeted during his second term.

One of the most competitive U.S. House races, in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, could show whether a close alliance with Trump helps or hurts Republicans in tight contests.

Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden , a Trump ally and retired Navy SEAL who attended the “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021, faces Rebecca Cooke, a moderate Democrat backed by prominent national figures in her party. Cooke grew up on a dairy farm and has worked as a waitress.

It is a rematch of their 2024 race, which Van Orden won by fewer than 3 percentage points .

The district, covering much of southwestern Wisconsin, only recently flipped to Republican control. Democratic Rep. Ron Kind held the seat for more than two decades until 2023, when he retired.

In 2020, Van Orden had challenged Kind for his seat, but lost the race by fewer than 3 percentage points. In 2022, after Kind had announced he would not seek reelection, Van Orden flipped the seat by beating out Democratic challenger Brad Pfaff by fewer than 4 percentage points.

While some Republicans in competitive races have distanced themselves from Trump, Van Orden has leaned into his ties to the president . He has continued to praise Trump and his administration on social media and spoke at the Republican midterm convention in September.

At an October candidates' forum, Van Orden touted his support for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill — a sweeping tax and spending law — and defended the president's tariffs on foreign goods. Cooke, in turn, linked rising costs to Trump’s war in Iran and criticized Van Orden for voting against measures to end U.S. involvement.

Through mid-October, Cooke had raised about $12.7 million for her campaign, compared with Van Orden's $9.1 million. Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.

Van Orden will need to turn out Republicans, including those whose support for Trump has cooled, to vote in a midterm election when turnout is typically lower than in presidential election years. Cooke, for her part, is seeking to improve on her 2024 showing, when she lost by just over 11,000 votes .

Another competitive race is unfolding in Wisconsin's 1st District, just south of Milwaukee, where GOP incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil, in office since 2019 and seeking a fifth term, faces Democrat Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse. Steil has outraised Berman as of mid-October, $6.4 million to $2 million. Trump carried the district by fewer than 5 percentage points in 2024.

In the competitive governor's race, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, faces Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who represents the 7th Congressional District. They are competing to succeed Gov. Tony Evers, a two-term Democrat, who followed two-term Republican Scott Walker.

Crowley, who received Evers’ endorsement, narrowly won the Democratic primary over progressive candidate Francesca Hong. Crowley briefly suspended his campaign before reentering the race. Tiffany was endorsed by Trump.

Wisconsin has backed the winner of every presidential election since 2008: Barack Obama twice, Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024. In 2016 and 2020, the state voted more Republican than the country overall, but in 2024 it supported Trump by a smaller margin than the national popular vote.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. Central time, or 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for governor, U.S. House, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer, state Senate and state Assembly, as well as statewide ballot measures.

About 2.6 million votes were cast in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race.

About 29% of all ballots in Wisconsin’s 2022 U.S. Senate race were cast early or by absentee ballot.

Counties vary in how and when they report early and absentee results. They are expected to release a mix of all vote types throughout election night. The latest advance voting totals for Wisconsin can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

The first Wisconsin results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 9:11 p.m. ET, 11 minutes after polls closed. About 50% of the votes had been reported by 10:31 p.m. ET, and 90% by 2:22 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, 2024.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue covering newsworthy developments, including candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while making clear it has not declared a winner and explaining why.

Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin. In races with more than 4,000 votes cast, a trailing candidate may request one if the margin of victory is less than 1 percentage point. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

___ Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.