AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh on the heels of Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary win in Michigan , Wisconsin voters will decide another high-profile clash between the party’s establishment and progressive wings in a gubernatorial primary on Tuesday.

Like Michigan, Wisconsin is one of the nation’s top electoral battlegrounds. The contest may further set the direction of the Democratic Party , as well as set the stage for a highly competitive general election where either party could emerge with complete control over state government . A competitive congressional race could also decide the majority in the closely divided U.S. House.

Four active candidates remain in the once-crowded Democratic primary field to succeed outgoing two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. State Rep. Francesca Hong, a former restaurant owner and democratic socialist who entered the race in 2025 as a self-described “wild card,” has emerged as a top contender for the nomination. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley briefly dropped out of the race in July but reentered with an endorsement from Evers . Former state cabinet secretary Joel Brennan and state Sen. Kelda Roys round out the field.

Campaign finance woes prompted Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez to exit the race , while former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes suspended his bid the same day the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that state Democratic officials had reviewed past allegations against him of inappropriate behavior toward young adult women. The Barnes campaign denied that there were any such allegations. The names of Rodriguez, Barnes and former state economic development director Missy Hughes, who dropped out in June, remain on the ballot.

The winner of the primary will likely face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who faces minimal opposition for his party’s nomination. Tiffany, who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, sits atop a massive war chest that not only dwarfs that of his sole primary opponent but the entire Democratic field combined. As of July 27, he had raised $13.3 million for his campaign overall and had about $5 million in the bank. Hong and Crowley had each raised slightly more than $1 million for their campaigns and had less than $500,000 in their respective campaign coffers.

Evers is Wisconsin’s third consecutive two-term governor. The race to replace him will set two longstanding political trends on a collision course. The state has a 64-year streak of electing new governors from the opposite party of their immediate predecessor. That would seemingly favor Wisconsin Republicans in November, although voters nationwide tend to punish the president’s party in midterm elections, which would favor Democrats.

About half of Wisconsin’s 33 state Senate seats and all 99 state Assembly seats are up in 2026. Republicans hold slight majorities in both chambers. For years, Wisconsin’s state legislative boundaries had been heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans, but the liberal-leaning state Supreme Court struck down the maps in 2023 and ordered them redrawn ahead of the 2024 elections. State Democrats made gains that year and now believe they could flip control of one or both chambers in November.

Wisconsin’s congressional districts remain among the most tilted toward Republicans nationally, according to an Associated Press analysis . Republicans hold six of the state’s eight U.S. House seats. One Republican-held district is a top target of Democrats hoping to retake the chamber.

U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden of the 3rd Congressional District is unopposed for the Republican nomination in his bid for a third term. He has Trump’s endorsement. Former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge and former boutique owner and nonprofit founder Rebecca Cooke are vying for the Democratic nomination. Cooke ran for the seat twice before. She placed second in the 2022 primary and narrowly lost the 2024 general election to Van Orden.

Milwaukee County is by far the state’s most populous and plays a pivotal role in both Democratic and Republican primaries. However, Waukesha County tends to contribute the most votes in Republican primaries. Dane and Brown counties, home to Madison and Green Bay, respectively, are major battlegrounds for both parties. Ozaukee and Washington counties, which along with Waukesha County, form the so-called “WOW” counties in suburban Milwaukee, tend to be more influential in Republican primaries than in Democratic primaries.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont trounced former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Wisconsin presidential primary. Sanders scored big wins in Dane, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago, Kenosha, LaCrosse and Eau Claire counties, approaching or surpassing the 60% vote mark in each. Clinton carried only Milwaukee County, which has the state’s highest share of Black residents.

Former President Joe Biden carried every county against Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary, which was held in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sanders’ strongest performance was in Dane County.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, state Senate and state Assembly.

Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. Eligible voters may register at the polls on Election Day.

As of August 1, there were about 3.6 million active registered voters in Wisconsin.

Around 500,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic state primaries in 2022, compared to roughly 680,000 Republican primary voters.

About 26% of the vote in the 2022 primaries was cast before early in-person or by mail.

As of Friday, about 235,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

Counties vary in terms of how and when they release early and absentee results. In previous elections, counties tended to release a mix of all vote types over the course of the night. Roughly a third of counties released all results, regardless of vote type, in the first vote update.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 9:09 p.m. ET, or nine minutes after polls closed. About 91% of the vote had been counted by 12 a.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 2:59 a.m. ET with 99.8% of total votes counted.

Milwaukee County, the most populous, had counted more than 99% of the vote by its final update of the night at 1:06 a.m. ET. Dane County, home of Madison, reached more than 99% of the total vote by its final update of the night at 12:38 a.m. ET.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but a trailing candidate may request one if the winning vote margin is less than a percentage point in races where more than 4,000 votes are cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Associated Press writer David Lieb in Jefferson City, Missouri, contributed to this report.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .