Buccaneers remain betting favorites to win the NFC South despite 3-6 record at their bye

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-6 and remain betting favorites to win their division.

Only in the NFC South .

The Bucs will be no worse than one game behind either the Panthers (3-5) or Saints (3-5) when they return from their bye week. Carolina plays at New Orleans on Sunday while the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) also are on a bye.

With the Bucs sitting at 2-0 in the division and facing only two games remaining against teams with a winning record currently, oddsmakers have them favored to win the South.

A team with a losing record has won the division twice in the past four years and there’s a chance that 7-10 or 8-9 will get the job done this season.

That shouldn’t be an accomplishment worth much celebration.

The team that ends up on top is most likely going one-and-done in the playoffs. Sure, they’ll get a home game in a 4-5 matchup. But each of the four teams in the NFC North are 6-3 or better. The No. 5 seed will be a road favorite against the South champion.

The Buccaneers stood pat at the trade deadline this week, as usual. General manager Jason Licht rarely makes in-season deals or any big splashes.

So they’ll have to go with what they have. It might be good enough.

The defense has been outstanding for the most part, ranking fourth in yards allowed (292.9) and seventh in points (19.8).

But the problem has been a dismal offense, specifically a porous passing attack led by Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay has the best rushing offense in the NFL behind by Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell. But they’re last in passing because their $55 million quarterback has more turnovers (seven) than touchdown passes (three).

“That’s definitely one of the things we have to look at during the bye week,” coach Todd Bowles said. “Are we comfortable with the calls that we’re calling, that he’s comfortable calling and playing with? Are we doing the right things for him schematically and then how his mechanics are and what he’s seeing on the field?

We’ve got to come to a decision on that and we’ve got to come to it quick, because it’s been a little bit of a challenge lately. We’ve got to make some changes there for the betterment of the team from a coaching and playing standpoint so we can move forward after the bye.”

Bowles said he won’t make any change with the play-calling duties. First-year offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will continue in that role. Robinson is the fourth OC in Mayfield’s four years with the team. Mayfield thrived with Dave Canales (Panthers) and Liam Coen (Jaguars), and each became a head coach after one season in Tampa Bay.

Mayfield missed three games with a fractured thumb sustained in Week 3 and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels went 1-2 in those starts. Daniels threw two picks in the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh in Week 6 when the Buccaneers blew a 13-point lead and lost in overtime .

Mayfield and the offense couldn’t even take advantage of five turnovers produced by the defense in a 27-24 loss at Chicago last Sunday night. Mayfield even threw a pick-6 after one of the defense’s four interceptions against Caleb Williams . The Bucs got 3 net points off the five turnovers.

With Mike Evans gone, the production from Tampa Bay’s wide receivers has dipped. Emeka Egbuka, a 2025 first-round draft pick, hasn’t played up to expectations after a promising start last season. His last 100-yard game was Nov. 9, 2025. Veteran Chris Godwin has only 29 catches for 259 yards. Others have had too many drops.

“Chemistry-wise, I would say, yes, we have enough firepower,” Bowles said before Tuesday’s trade deadline. “Talent-wise, we’re probably not. Production-wise, we’re not doing what we’ve been doing in the past, so we can pick it up a little bit at that position.”

The offensive line has played a part in the passing woes. The unit has struggled in pass protection at times, allowing 27 sacks. It had five false start penalties against Chicago.

Irving has been the bright spot. The third-year running back has 825 yards rushing and seven touchdowns while Gainwell has 305 yards on the ground.

Irving, generously listed at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, hasn’t missed a game this season but the Bucs have to be careful not to rely on him too much. They won a game two weeks ago when Mayfield handed off 52 times and didn’t complete a pass. Irving and Gainwell helped set a single-game franchise record with 324 yards rushing in that one, a 16-0 victory over Atlanta .

“I don’t know if he has the frame to keep up that workload," Bowles said. “We have to be wary of keeping him upright the entire season.”

The bye gives Irving an opportunity to rest and should help Mayfield, Egbuka, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and others heal up.

The Buccaneers have a tough game at Detroit when they return next week before a home matchup against Carolina on Monday, Nov. 30.

“We know if we take care of us, we’re going to be fine,” Bowles said. “We still feel that way and think that way.”

See AP’s full NFL coverage here