CFP initial rankings and AP Top 25 line up close to the same over playoff's 12-year history

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released Tuesday night, and there are bound to be a few differences between the selection committee and the 70 media members who make up The Associated Press Top 25 voting panel.

Maybe not as many as you'd think, though.

When the AP rankings corresponding with the initial CFP rankings over the 12 years of the playoff are put side by side, the two compare quite favorably. ( The AP Top 25 released Sunday, for example, would be the one used to compare with the Tuesday's CFP rankings.)

Of the possible 300 teams — 25 each year — that have appeared in the CFP's initial rankings, 283 also were in the AP poll that week. That's 94% agreement as far as which teams merit ranking.

The selection committee and AP poll agreed on the No. 1 team seven of the 12 years, including Ohio State in 2025 and Oregon in 2024.

The CFP rankings and AP poll had teams placed in the same spot 84 times (28%) or had teams with a one-spot difference 78 times (26%).

There was a two-spot difference 51 times (17%), three-spot difference 35 times (11.7%) and a four-plus difference 35 times (11.7%).

The year with the most agreement was 2024, when 13 teams landed in the same spot and six teams had a one-spot differential.

In 2015, none of the 25 teams were ranked in the same spot. In 2016 and ‘17, all the teams in the CFP initial rankings also were in that week’s AP poll.

Finally, the No. 1 team in the initial CFP rankings has gone on to win the national championship twice (2021 Georgia, 2020 Alabama). The No. 1 team in the AP poll for the corresponding week has won it five times (2022 Georgia, 2021 Georgia, 2020 Alabama, 2019 LSU, 2017 Alabama).

UCLA, Utah and Kentucky have been the biggest movers in the poll in recent weeks.

The Bruins, 8-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney, have climbed 22 spots from Week 3 to No. 5 in Week 9. That ranking is their highest since they were No. 4 following a 6-0 start in 2001.

Utah has jumped 18 spots since the preseason poll and is up to No. 3, matching its highest ranking since Oct. 18, 2015, when it was 6-0.

Kentucky, riding a six-game winning streak, is up 18 spots over the last four polls. The Wildcats' No. 8 ranking is their best since they were No. 7 on Sept. 25, 2022.

New Mexico has had plenty to celebrate in Jason Eck's second season. The Lobos are 7-1 for their best start since 1982 and they are the only Mountain West team unbeaten in conference play. And now they are ranked in the AP poll for the first time in program history, checking in at No. 22 following a 21-16 win at San Jose State. The program dates back 134 years, to 1892 and the AP poll began in 1936.

Week 10 features six Top 25 matchups, the third week there have been as many. The third top-five matchup of the season is set when No. 1 Miami visits No. 4 Notre Dame, and the sixth top-10 matchup will have No. 7 BYU at No. 3 Utah for the Holy War rivalry game. The lower-ranked team has won 13 of 26 Top 25 matchups this season. ... Miami has played only one other regular-season top-five matchup in program history as a No. 1 team. That was in 1988: No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame. ... Three No. 2 teams have lost the last three weeks, the most since there were six in 2024. There hadn't been a three-losses-in-three-weeks stretch for No. 2s since 2007. ... With Utah climbing to No. 3, after BYU had reached No. 2 two weeks ago, this is the first season since 2015 that the Big 12 has had multiple teams in the top three. TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma were the teams to do it in 2015.

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