College football picks: Coaches know all too well seasons can turn against most unlikely opponents

Sometimes a team just has another team's number, until it doesn't. That's part of what makes college football so fun.

Several matchups on Saturday pit teams in The Associated Press Top 25 that have had seasons ruined by an upset loss to opponents they otherwise dominated for years. Sometimes the loss fueled the fire for the future.

Ohio State, for instance, has won seven of the last eight games and 15 of 17 against Iowa. But you can be sure coach Ryan Day remembers 2017 in Iowa City when, as Urban Meyer's co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, the Hawkeyes put a 55-24 playoff-hopes-killing whipping on a third-ranked Buckeyes team.

Day was asked about that game Tuesday, and he recounted a few details. He also pointed out it has no practical use in helping preparations this week other than it can be used to remind the current team how challenging it is to play at Kinnick Stadium.

Georgia has won six in a row and 25 of 28 against Vanderbilt, but the 17-16 home loss to the Commodores is still remembered as the low point of Kirby Smart's first season. It also turned out to be the launc pad for reaching the national championship game the next year and winning 11-plus games eight of the next nine seasons along with two titles.

Notre Dame has won 11 of 12 against North Carolina and five straight since the pivotal 29-24 loss in 2008 that began Charlie Weis' free fall as coach. The Fighting Irish went into Chapel Hill 4-1 and Weis looked to be on the rebound from a disastrous three-win 2007. The loss to the Tar Heels started an 11-20 stretch that cost Weis his job the next year.

Ah, memories.

The picks for FBS vs. FBS games, with rankings and betting lines. All games Saturday unless noted:

This matchup offers a delicious storyline: Vanderbilt five-star freshman QB Jared Curtis de-committed from Georgia in December and now goes to Sanford Stadium to play the team he jilted.

Pick: Georgia 38-21.

Notre Dame is the first top-five opponent to visit Chapel Hill since a then-No. 2 Irish won by two TDs in 2020. Carolina is going to struggle to move the ball against the nation's No. 1 defense.

Pick: Notre Dame 42-10.

Clemson gave up seven pass plays of 20-plus yards in the opener against LSU and a total of five over the next three games. Miami's Malachi Toney is the national co-leader with 11 receptions for 20 yards or longer.

Pick: Miami 33-19.

Hawkeyes have the ability to draw opponents into their style of game, which is why they have lost by two touchdowns or more at home just once since 2014.

Pick: Ohio State 24-14.

Hoosiers got challenged at home by Northwestern and dropped a spot in the poll for a second straight week. They might take out some frustration against an easy mark.

Pick: Indiana 52-14.

Great matchup of the best homegrown QBs in the SEC in Keelon Brown and Kamario Taylor. Bulldogs going for their highest-ranked home win in 10 years.

Pick: Mississippi State 35-31.

No one has been able to stop the Gators' Jadan Baugh-led rushing attack, at least not yet. Missouri is allowing 2.77 yards per carry, the third-best mark in the SEC.

Pick: Missouri 27-24.

TCU has scored a combined 23 points against its two Power Four opponents. BYU's defense will have its ears pinned back going after Jaden Craig, who was sacked four times and threw two interceptions in loss to UCF.

Pick: BYU 33-17.

Red Raiders are unbeaten and ranked in the top 15, yet they are far from playing their best ball. Buffaloes might have peaked in their opener against Georgia Tech.

Pick: Texas Tech 38-21.

Keep an eye on how Volunteers QB Faizon Brandon responds to taking 10 sacks against Texas. That would mess with any quarterback's mind, let alone a freshman's.

Pick: Tennessee 27-19.

Washington is on road for first time. The good news for the defensively challenged Trojans is the Huskies' offense isn't nearly as powerful as the one they faced in Oregon.

Pick: USC 40-28.

QB Keyone Jenkins makes his first road start for UCF in place of the injured Alonza Barnett III. The team that runs the ball better should win, and Houston does that a little better than the Knights.

Pick: Houston 26-21.

SMU gets some grace for a disastrous first quarter against Missouri State last week. Kevin Jennings, who's completing 77% of his passes for 363 yards per game, is too much for BC as long as he takes care of the ball.

Pick: SMU 48-24.

Both teams moved from the Mountain West to the Pac-12. The outcome will be the same as the last 10 times the teams met — a Broncos win.

Pick: Boise State 35-10.

Notre Dame transfer QB Kenny Minchey is hitting his stride for the Wildcats, who will be facing a desperate team whose coach is under fire and its best player is suspended indefinitely for punching an opponent.

Pick: Kentucky 27-26.

Bye weeks: No. 1 Texas, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Utah, No. 15 Oregon, No. 19 Oklahoma State, No. 23 UCLA. Also: No. 11 LSU vs. McNeese State.

Last week: Straight-up — 14-4; Against spread — 12-6.

Season: Straight-up — 60-13; Against spread — 36-36-1.

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