College football picks: Conference games are the closest they have been in at least a half century

The upsets keep coming, followed by “coachspeak” about parity in college football. The trendlines appear to back it up.

Last week, there were 30 one-score games in conference play across the Bowl Subdivision, most in a single week since at least 1973. For the season, there have been 128 conference games decided by eight or fewer points, most through a Week 8 since at least 1973 and 32 more than a year ago at this time. The average point differential in conference games is 13.9 points, again lowest since at least 1973. All this is according to Sportradar.

A total of 69 one-score conference games have been played in the Power Four so far this season, which means there is a lot of riveting football going on. The breakdown: 20 of 39 in the ACC (51%), 19 of 38 in the Big Ten (50%), 13 of 33 in the Big 12 (39%) and 17 of 39 in the SEC (44%).

Will there be more surprises this week? The picks, with rankings and betting lines. All games are on Saturday:

Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are the hottest things going right now and both are in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. The Tar Heels’ middle-of-the-pack ACC defense shriveled in the fourth quarter against struggling Syracuse.

Pick: Miami 38-21.

The Buckeyes go to the West Coast for their first game without Julian Sayin. Their defense is capable of carrying the load in this one.

Pick: Ohio State 24-17.

Georgia, coming off open date following the Auburn upset, hasn’t lost consecutive games since the 2018 season. Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again.

Pick: Georgia 27-17.

This seems like a big spread for a Hoosiers team that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any of its last three games and has a quarterback who’s been banged up.

Pick: Indiana 23-10.

The Fighting Irish have had a couple weeks to stew over what happened at BYU and will take it out on an underperforming Navy defense.

Pick: Notre Dame 45-14.

The Holy War against No. 8 BYU is looming next week, but Cincinnati will get the Utes’ full attention after what the Bearcats did to Texas Tech last week.

Pick: Utah 28-19.

UCLA steps out of conference to face a middling Mountain West team. QB Ty Dieffenbach continues to build chemistry with the backing of the Big Ten's best run game.

Pick: UCLA 33-7.

The Sun Devils’ defense was tough against Kansas State and its backup QB last week. BYU is back home, in bounce-back mode and looking to get out to a fast start after two close games.

Pick: BYU 34-20.

The Longhorns calmed the waters in Austin with their win over Mississippi and won’t slip up against a spiraling Bulldogs team that lost QB Kamario Taylor for the season.

Pick: Texas 45-21.

Rebels’ playoff hopes dangling and RB Kewan Lacy (shoulder) is out. Expect Trinidad Chambliss, picked off three times by Texas, to be better against an Auburn defense that’s allowed over 700 yards passing over last two games.

Pick: Mississippi 35-21.

Wildcats riding momentum of five-game win streak into Lubbock, where they haven’t won since 1935. Red Raiders have lost their mojo, and it showed at Cincinnati.

Pick: Arizona 34-24.

Demon Deacons have won four straight, the last three by lopsided scores. Virginia hasn't been getting much done on offense, but Tony Elliott gave QB Beau Pribula a vote of confidence this week.

Pick: Wake Forest 31-13.

Mustangs on road for first time in six weeks after scoring touchdowns on seven straight possessions in second half against California.

Pick: SMU 33-24.

Matchup of a couple young coaches whose stars are rising in Bobcats' GJ Kinne and Broncos' Spencer Danielson. Last team to score wins.

Pick: Boise State 42-40.

Chip Kelly, who has worked wonders as Northwestern's first-year offensive coordinator, returns to Eugene to face the program he led to a 46-7 record from 2009-12 after two years as OC.

Pick: Northwestern 30-27.

All-America RB Ahmad Hardy returned to practice this week, but Jamal Roberts will continue to be the bell cow for the Tigers.

Pick: Missouri 31-17.

Cyclones have given up over 300 yards passing in two straight games. Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker has thrown for over 300 in six straight.

Pick: Oklahoma State 41-20.

Iowa has won four straight over the Badgers and outscored them 79-10 the last two meetings. Hawkeyes are without injured RB Kamari Moulton rest of season.

Pick: Iowa 14-13.

Byes: No. 9 Kentucky, No. 10 Alabama, No. 15 LSU, No. 16 Tennessee, No. 18 Houston.

Last week: Straight-up — 10-7; Against spread — 8-8-1.

Season: Straight-up — 100-39; Against spread — 68-69-2.

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