Kenyans brace for heavy El Niño rains as flood survivors recall their losses

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — For decades, Mary Okello has lived on the banks of a river in Kenya that floods every rainy season. But forecasts of heavier-than-usual rainfall across East Africa this autumn have sent chills down her spine, reminding her of how she lost all her belongings in 2024.

Okello was working at her hair salon when heavy rains began, forcing her to rush home and evacuate her five children. They watched as their belongings were washed away by water that eventually submerged all the houses in the area.

Since then, she says, she has had to move to higher ground in Mathare, an area of the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, where many residents live in houses built from corrugated iron sheets along the Mathare River, a major tributary of the Nairobi River.

Kenya's Meteorological Service Authority has warned that a super El Niño is expected to bring heavier rain from October to December, with November projected to be the peak of the season. The Kenya National Disaster Operations Centre urged people living in flood-prone areas to move to higher ground, saying 1.5 million people are at risk of being affected.

Scientists have predicted that this year’s El Niño, a temporary and natural warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that affects weather patterns across the globe, could be the most intense one recorded.

In Nairobi and other major towns, government agencies have mobilized workers to clear drainage systems ahead of the rains. Houses built along the Nairobi River were demolished, leaving a recommended 30-meter (98-feet) buffer zone between the river and residential areas clear.

“I always get worried when I see people rebuilding along the river,” Okello said.

George Simeka, a poultry keeper and urban farmer who used to live along the Nairobi River, remembers hearing his neighbors scream during the 2024 floods.

Simeka has had to start his life afresh after his house and those of his neighbors were submerged.

He vowed to improve his flood defenses by planting trees along the riverbed, but authorities cut them down while clearing the land near the river.

A few meters from where Simeka once lived is Jackline Mueni, another survivor of the floods who has now relocated.

Mueni was unable to salvage any of her belongings when the water came. She remembers families losing important documents including birth certificates and identification cards, which can be difficult and costly to replace.

“I witnessed a lot of families suffering, especially women and children. Some died,” Mueni said.

Even when residents are willing to move away from flood-prone areas, Mueni said, poverty often limits their choices, especially with the rising cost of living. She said she now shares a small room with her children.

For many families, leaving the riverbank is not simply a matter of deciding to move. Finding safer housing requires money that they may not have.

A 2026 report by the World Resources Institute suggested that Nairobi is increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of longstanding failures in urban planning, continued wetland loss and inadequate enforcement of land use regulations, rather than rainfall intensity alone.

Nairobi County’s disaster management officer, Bramwell Simiyu, said sewage and garbage discharged from homes along the banks of the Mathare River ends up clogging the waterway, worsening flooding in Nairobi during periods of heavy rain.

He said cleanup operations were ongoing along the river to clear drains, improve water flow and reduce flooding.

Victor Ojoo, a Mathare resident, previously lost his source of income after floods washed away his pigs. Ahead of the rainy season, he is contributing to flood prevention efforts by cleaning up the river.

Simiyu added that one lesson from previous flooding disasters was the need for stronger coordination among agencies responding to emergencies.

Officials have identified about 172 venues where residents can take shelter in and be given food and medicine in case they needed to be evacuated, he said.

Technology will also play a larger role in the county’s emergency response plans.

The county plans to work with mobile service provider Safaricom to send timely alerts and other emergency information to residents ahead of disasters, he added.

The Kenya Human Rights Commission has warned that the expected rains could trigger a nationwide human rights and humanitarian crisis, particularly in communities already vulnerable to displacement, loss of livelihoods and limited access to essential services.

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