South Sudan’s elections next month risk unraveling a fragile peace, envoys warn

JUBA, South Sudan (AP) — The African Union's top representative for South Sudan urged the United Nations to help ensure that a critical election in the conflict-torn East African nation next month passes peacefully and without violence.

Despite a 2018 peace agreement that ended a five-year civil war, South Sudan still sees armed fighting, violence and displacement of people — and there are concerns that elections could further unravel the fragile peace.

Jakaya Kikwete, the AU’s top envoy for South Sudan and Tanzania’s former president, made the appeal for assistance in a video call to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday.

He pressed for security reforms and dialogue among all parties after the election to “help heal the nation.”

If the vote is not conducted properly and peacefully, "you cannot contemplate what would happen,” he said. The country could face an even “bigger political and security crisis.”

South Sudan has repeatedly delayed elections since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011. A civil war erupted in 2013 and some 400,000 people were killed before the 2018 peace agreement that brought President Salva Kiir and rival Riek Machar into an interim, power-sharing government.

Kiir dissolved the transitional government in September, removed his deputies and appointed a caretaker administration. The national legislature and state governments were also dissolved.

Machar remains under house arrest and on trial on charges that include treason over an attack on a military garrison that authorities allege he helped orchestrate. His allies deny the allegations.

Many are concerned the Dec. 22 elections may be too soon for the fragile country.

Murithi Mutiga, the International Crisis Group’s Africa director, said the rushed vote could be “a final blow” to the 2018 peace agreement and “would open the door to a return to sustained large-scale violence.”

Last month, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a report to the Security Council that the electoral framework could “alter the foundations of the transition” agreed by the peace deal’s signatories.

“This increases uncertainty at a time when confidence-building and inclusive engagement are essential to safeguard the transition and prevent wider conflict,” Guterres said.

Kiki Gbeho, the U.N.’s special envoy for South Sudan, expressed her doubts about the election.

While Kiir’s party — the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement — was conducting nationwide primaries, Gbeho added, other parties have shown “very limited electoral activity."

“These developments are creating momentum toward elections,” she said, but whether they can be held on the planned date remains uncertain, as does their inclusivity.

South Sudan’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Sabino Amaikwey, defended the Dec. 22 vote, and said it was time to stop further postponements of the election.

“Elections are not an obstacle to peace. They are an essential part of its consolidation and provide the people of South Sudan with the opportunity to determine their political leadership and future,” he said.

South Sudan’s National Elections Commission chairman, Gabriel Bol Deng, said the commission would treat all parties fairly and remain impartial, according to a statement shared with The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The commission has not announced a start date for parties to register for the elections or responded to AP questions about whether preparations for the vote can be completed before Dec. 22.

Gbeho said Machar’s party maintains that his release from house arrest remains a prerequisite for its participation in dialogue.

The humanitarian situation in South Sudan, a country with an estimated population of 12.5 million people, also continues to worsen, Gbeho said, with more people at risk of famine and 10 million people needing assistance, including an estimated 7.5 million facing food insecurity.

Lederer reported from the United Nations.