Why it's still too early to call the US Senate race in Mississippi

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 2,500 votes separate Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the race for U.S. Senate in Mississippi, and votes are still being counted on Friday. Here’s why the race is still too early to call.

To call a race, The Associated Press relies on its estimate of how many votes remain to be counted to ensure that the trailing candidate has no path to overtake the leading candidate. The AP calculates this value based on factors including past turnout, population changes, voter registration totals and any early turnout figures provided by elections officials. The estimate of the number of votes that remain to be counted is revised continuously on election night and in the days after.

On Friday morning, the AP’s outstanding vote estimate stood at around 44,000 votes in the Mississippi Senate race. After obtaining updated information across the state, the estimate as of 4:45 p.m. ET is now closer to 30,000 votes. However, that figure could change as additional details are gathered.

Many counties in Mississippi — including larger counties like Hinds and Rankin — have historically reported their absentee ballots and provisional ballots after Election Day results have been counted. In the 2024 general election, 12.7% of votes cast were counted after all precincts reported on election night, and the AP's estimates take this into account. In some counties, it is unclear how many — if any — absentee ballots have yet been counted. With little insight into the process, the AP’s estimates are largely based on past reporting patterns.

Most Mississippi voters cast their ballots in person on Election Day. Only a limited number of people vote by absentee ballot, as the state requires voters to provide an excuse for not being able to vote in person.

Mississippi also has some of the strictest voter I.D. laws in the nation. If voters are unable to provide a photo I.D. at the polls, election officials let them complete a provisional ballot — which is only counted if the voter presents their identification to officials within five business days of Election Day. A voter may also have to cast a provisional ballot if their voter registration status is found to be inactive when they arrive at the polls. This can happen if a voter is erroneously believed to have become ineligible to vote when the officials maintain election rolls.

Unlike in some other states, there is no central vote reporting system for the state of Mississippi, and few counties release election results online. Instead, AP journalists and analysts communicate with each of the state’s 82 counties directly for the latest available information on vote counts.

Some counties release preliminary absentee vote results on election night, while others release them in the days following the election. In Mississippi, absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days of the election, or Nov. 10, to be counted — meaning the number of absentee votes can continue to climb after the election.

Counties are required to report the results of provisional ballots when they report their certified results to the state 10 days after the election on Nov. 13. On Thursday, Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said that about 7,000 provisional ballots had been processed, of which about 80% had been accepted.

The AP is continuously working to gather additional data on the number of outstanding ballots.

As of Friday at 4:45 p.m. ET, the AP estimates that roughly 7% of ballots have yet to be counted in Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold. In 2024, roughly 15% of votes had not been counted yet in Hinds County when all Election Day precincts had reported. The AP did not receive another vote update in the county until the state certified its election. In Hinds, Colom currently has a roughly 47,000-vote lead over Hyde-Smith.

In red Rankin County, where President Donald Trump won 73% of the vote in 2024, the AP currently estimates that around 2,200 votes are outstanding. County officials told the AP on Friday that they have 1,667 provisional ballots, 282 mail ballots received and 138 mail ballots outstanding. It is not clear if all of those votes will be counted. In 2024, roughly 23% of the vote had not been counted yet after all Election Day precincts had reported in Rankin County. The AP received a vote update five days later, bringing the count to 95% of ballots cast, and did not receive the final 5% until the state certified the election.

Mississippi does not have automatic recounts or permit candidates to request a recount. Recounts in the state are held only in the event of a court order.

The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Associated Press writers Lauren Johnert in Washington and Hannah Barton in Chicago contributed to this report.