Analysis: Republicans face a midterm reckoning of Trump's making

WASHINGTON (AP) — For President Donald Trump , this week's elections are about him. For his fellow Republicans, the risk is voters will agree.

Midterms almost always serve as a referendum on the president’s party, and losses typically ensue. But Trump’s decisions to impose tariffs, start a war and oversee extravagant Washington renovations — largely without congressional consultation — have made it harder for Republicans to navigate those historical headwinds.

There is a direct connection between his actions and higher gas prices, costlier groceries and persistently high inflation.

Republicans cannot blame the fallout from those decisions on past administrations when Trump has owned them so fulsomely. They also cannot easily distance themselves from an unpopular president who demands loyalty and routinely tells voters the economy is just fine .

At virtually every juncture before Election Day on Tuesday, Trump has complicated the task of protecting Republican majorities in Congress.

The Iran war is “making it exponentially harder for Republicans to keep the House and Senate,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans, said in a debate while noting his support for the effort.

Republicans have had one distinct advantage: money.

Trump’s political groups spent nearly $277 million to boost Republicans since September, a staggering amount that puts this year on pace to be the most expensive midterm ever.

But it may not be enough to carry the GOP.

His import taxes disrupted the agricultural economy and triggered a trade war with Canada, putting Republicans on defense in Senate races from Iowa, Michigan and Kansas to Nebraska, Ohio and Maine. The war in Iran that he said would be over in weeks continues eight months later with no clear strategy for conclusion, starkly at odds with his pledge to not engage in Middle East conflicts.

“This administration’s actions are directly responsible for rising costs,” former Democratic President Barack Obama said in Ohio.

Trump has shown little sympathy for Americans coping with rising costs. He has dismissed affordability challenges as a “hoax” and told a Georgia rally that he does not “give a damn” about criticism of gas prices — even as he celebrated profits for U.S. oil and gas companies.

All the while, he has grown far more wealthy, taking in $1.2 billion from crypto businesses while most investors lost money.

Campaigning with Democrats in competitive House races recently in Virginia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg argued that “the corruption that we’ve seen is directly connected to the pain that people are feeling economically.”

“You cannot separate these things,” said Buttigieg, a potential presidential candidate in 2028.

Some voters are also upset at Trump's priorities, including his lavish Washington remake.

A ballroom that Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts deemed “likely unlawful” is rising over the White House as the Republican administration signals it could begin work on building a triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery later this week. He has said he will defy a federal judge and move forward later this month with plans to close a park along the Potomac River that has long served as the backdrop for family picnics, scenic bike rides and affordable golf to make way for a “world class” golf course.

Midterms are historically challenging for a president’s party.

During Trump's last midterm in 2018, Democrats gained 40 House seats and 31 during Republican George W. Bush’s second term in 2006. Republicans, meanwhile, picked up 63 seats in 2010 under Obama but flipped fewer than 10 in 2022 under Democratic President Joe Biden .

Redistricting has reduced the number of genuinely competitive House districts , but Trump has added to the GOP's challenge by intervening in several Senate races in ways that may ultimately erase their majority. In Texas, outgoing Republican Sen. John Cornyn has warned that Trump's pick in this year's primary, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, is weak against Democrat James Talarico, a state representative.

“Even in places like Texas, which are pretty red, we've got flawed candidates who I think are going to have a hard time," Cornyn said in a brief interview.

About one-third of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the presidency, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research . That’s lower than Biden’s approval in AP-NORC polling just before the midterms as well as Trump’s first-term approval, which stood around 40% just before the midterms.

In October 2006, around 37% of U.S. adults approved of Bush’s performance while about 45% approved of Obama’s performance just before the 2010 elections, according to Gallup polling. Gallup’s presidential approval tracking question, which was discontinued by the firm earlier this year, phrased the question differently and used a different method than AP-NORC polls so the findings are not directly comparable.

Previous presidents such as Bush and Obama, when their approval ratings were drooping, gave members of their party room to create some distance. Trump is generally not leaving that kind of space, leading candidates to take more subtle steps like removing mentions of the president from their websites.

Democrats have kept up the pressure, spending hundreds of millions on advertising that connects Republicans to Trump. A Democratic ad in Michigan, for example, called Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, “all in on the war, all in on Trump.”

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for Senate in Iowa, is testing how to balance loyalty and independence from Trump, who scheduled a rally in the state Sunday. She said in a debate that she would be Trump’s “ally when it is important for Iowa, but I will push back on him.”

She toured an ethanol facility in Dyersville, Iowa, a few days later alongside Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin. The visit was intended to underscore her advocacy for one of Iowa's most important industries but she soon faced questions about Trump’s controversial deal with Russia to lower diesel prices.

“Lowering fuel prices across the board continues to be a priority for me,” Hinson said before adding that “it makes me a little bit nervous anytime we’re talking about relieving a sanction on Russia.”

For all of the GOP's challenges, Democrats also face risks. As some in the party become bullish in their expectations, there are warnings about over-interpreting the results.

“Anger against Trump is going to be a waning emotion,” Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said in an interview. “We’ve got to deliver.”

Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., recently traveled to Hungary to study how voters rejected Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his authoritarian policies. In a speech, she spoke of a “tipping point” when “the public will refuse to accept this level of corruption.”

Asked in an interview whether the U.S. is reaching a “tipping point,” she said “that’s the $100 million question,” cautioning that voters are not “falling in love with Democrats.”

“A midterm is almost always a signal and a reaction to the party in power,” she said. “What we do, starting January 1, if we manage to flip the House, is going to be a proof point for those swing voters on whether they made a good call.”

Editor's Note: Steven Sloan has covered politics for The Associated Press since 2018.