AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alaska’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Alaska voters will narrow down a long list of contenders Tuesday for a competitive U.S. Senate seat that’s expected to play a pivotal role in determining which party will hold a majority in the chamber next year. Crowded fields of candidates for governor, U.S. House and the state Legislature will also compete for spots on the general election ballot.

Although the state has long been safe Republican territory in federal elections, this year marks the third consecutive election cycle in which Alaska finds itself among a handful of states at the center of the fight for control of Congress.

At the top of the ballot, Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a strong challenge from Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola in his bid for a third term. They are the most notable contenders among 16 candidates in the state’s all-party primary, in which the top four vote-getters will advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. The winner in November will be determined by ranked choice voting , as is the case for all Alaska general elections following a new law approved by voters in 2020.

Sullivan was first elected in 2014 after defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, 48% to 46%. He won his 2020 reelection with 54% of the vote and a 13-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

Peltola was first elected in a 2022 special election to replace longtime Republican congressman Don Young, who died after almost 50 years in office . She defeated Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich in Alaska’s first statewide ranked choice voting election. She was elected to a full term later that year but lost her 2024 reelection bid to Begich, who is the nephew of the former U.S. senator.

Peltola has raised about $18.5 million for her campaign, compared with about $11.7 million for Sullivan. As of July 29, Sullivan had about $7.3 million in his campaign account, compared with about $4.6 million for Peltola.

The only other U.S. Senate candidate who reported raising any money was another Dan Sullivan, a former teacher who shares the same first and last name as the Republican incumbent. Republicans tried unsuccessfully to block the other Dan Sullivan from appearing on the ballot, accusing him of colluding with Democrats to help elect Peltola by confusing voters, which he and the Peltola campaign have denied. An Alaska court overturned efforts to boot the challenger from the ballot.

Sen. Sullivan will appear on the ballot as “Dan S. Sullivan” alongside the labels of “Registered Republican” and “Incumbent.” Challenger Sullivan will be listed as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without any party affiliation listed, although he filed for office as a Republican.

Nick Begich also faces a crowded field in his bid for a second term in the state’s lone congressional seat, but only commercial fisherman and former Bristol Bay Borough School Superintendent Bill Hill has emerged as a credible challenger. Hill is running as an independent, but he has the backing of several local union organizations as well as that of Anchorage pastor Matt Schultz, the top Democrat in the race before he suspended his campaign and endorsed Hill.

Begich raised about $5.5 million for the campaign, compared with about $1.3 million for Hill, and the incumbent sits atop a far larger campaign war chest.

Seventeen candidates are running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Among them is former Gov. Bill Walker, who is running as an independent.

Republican candidates include former state Sens. Click Bishop, Shelley Hughes and Lesil McGuire, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, former state revenue Commissioner Adam Crum, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor and business owner and conservative activist Bernadette Wilson.

Former state Sen. Tom Begich and former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins are the two Democrats in the race. Begich is the brother of Mark Begich and the uncle of Nick Begich.

Voters will also decide a statewide ballot measure that would impose contribution limits on state and local political campaigns. A 2021 federal court ruling lifted limits on what an individual could give a candidate.

Half of Alaska’s 20 state Senate seats and all 40 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republican lawmakers outnumber Democratic lawmakers, but both chambers are organized by multiparty coalitions rather than along strict party lines.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is midnight and 1 a.m. ET. Almost all polls in the state close at midnight ET, but one polling location in the Aleutian Islands closes at 1 a.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate and state House, as well as a statewide ballot measure.

Any voter registered in Alaska may participate in the state’s all-party, top-four primary system.

As of Aug. 3, there were about 602,000 registered voters in Alaska. About 380,000 voters, roughly 63%, were either undeclared or nonpartisan voters; about 142,000, or 24%, were Republicans; and about 70,000, or 12%, were Democrats.

Roughly 190,000 voters participated in the 2022 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial primaries. About 108,000 voters participated in the 2024 U.S. House primary.

About 23% of the U.S. Senate primary vote and about 28% of the U.S. House primary vote in the 2022 state primary was cast early in person or by mail.

As of Thursday, about 18,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

A mix of vote results from in-person Election Day and early in-person voting are released in the first vote update of the night. Typically, nearly all in-person Election Day results and in-person early voting results are released by the last update of the night, with the bulk of mail voting results released in the days following election night.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 1:03 a.m. ET, or three minutes after final polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 4:58 a.m. ET, with about 89% of total votes counted. The count reached 100% on Sept. 1 at 6:57 p.m. ET, 12 days after the election.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Alaska are automatic in the event of a tie vote. Candidates may also request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 77 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .