AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida voters will select nominees Tuesday to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and to complete the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s unexpired U.S. Senate term. The state also will hold its first congressional primaries since adopting a redrawn district map designed to boost Republican candidates in November.

The primary for governor could set the direction for both parties in the state. A longstanding rivalry between DeSantis and President Donald Trump broadly shapes the Republican contest, while moderate and progressive candidates compete to guide beleaguered state Democrats out of their electoral doldrums.

Eleven candidates are competing for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins , U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds , former investment firm CEO James Fishback and former state House Speaker Paul Renner .

Donalds has Trump’s endorsement and enjoys an overwhelming financial advantage over the rest of the field. He backed Trump over DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primaries and was considered as a possible Trump running mate that year.

Collins is a close DeSantis ally who says he is running to “protect the DeSantis legacy.” He was tapped by DeSantis to serve as lieutenant governor in August 2025. In his announcement, DeSantis said Collins, an Army Special Forces veteran who lost a leg to combat injuries, was “the Chuck Norris of Florida politics.” Nonetheless, DeSantis has not endorsed a candidate in the primary.

Six Democrats are running to succeed DeSantis, including former Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly , state Rep. Dotie Joseph and former high school math teacher Dayna Marie Foster, who is backed by the state’s Democratic Progressive Caucus.

Jolly took an unlikely path to running for governor as a Democrat, joining the party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018. He has a commanding fundraising lead over the rest of the field in spite of his past political affiliation. He has tapped former Democratic U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate, and her name will appear alongside his on the ballot. Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham, the longtime Democratic U.S. Senator and governor.

Florida Democrats have faced a drought in statewide elections, particularly for governor. A Democrat last won the governorship more than 30 years ago. DeSantis was reelected in 2022 with a 19-point margin over former Gov. Charlie Crist, another former Republican-turned independent-turned Democrat.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody faces minimal opposition for the party’s nomination. Moody was state attorney general in January 2025 when DeSantis appointed her to fill Rubio’s vacant U.S. Senate seat. She is now running to complete the final two years of Rubio’s term.

Her Democratic opponent in November will be either state Rep. Angie Nixon or retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman . Vindman, a former National Security Council staff member, was a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. His brother, Eugene, was elected to Congress from Virginia's 7th District in 2024.

Nixon, along with Joseph in the race for governor, was among a group of Black state lawmakers who led unsuccessful Democratic efforts to block Republican redistricting plans in 2022 and 2026 .

The new congressional boundaries Republicans enacted in May essentially eliminate four congressional districts currently or most recently represented by Democrats. Democratic U.S. Reps. Kathy Castor in the 14th District around Tampa and Darren Soto in the 9th District near Orlando are both running for reelection in their new Republican-friendly districts and will face the winners of crowded GOP primaries.

In South Florida along the Gold Coast, Republicans redrew the area with the hope of reducing the number of Democratic districts from five to three. Like Castor and Soto, U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz is running for reelection in a new Republican-friendly district, but he must first clear a primary challenge from union organizer and democratic socialist Oliver Larkin.

In another South Florida district, former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is mounting a comeback bid after resigning from the 20th District in April . She’ll face U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic primary in the new 20th, which is no longer a majority-Black district.

Republican U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Cory Mills face competitive primary challenges in the 6th and 7th Districts, respectively, while a crowded Republican primary to replace Donalds in the 19th District has attracted a lot of out-of-state interest. Former U.S. Reps. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina and Chris Collins of New York, as well as a former Illinois state senator, all seek the Republican nomination.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. Most of the state is in Eastern time, and polls there close at 7 p.m. ET. A few counties are in Central time, and polls there close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner, state Senate and state House.

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

As of July 20, there were about 13.5 million registered voters in Florida. Of those, about 5.6 million, or about 42% were Republicans; about 4.1 million, or 30%, were Democrats and about 3.3 million, or about 25%, were not registered with any party. The rest were registered with other parties.

About 1.5 million Republican primary voters and about 1.1 million Democratic primary voters participated in the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries.

About 63% of the Republican primary vote and about 77% of the Democratic primary vote in the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries was cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Friday, about 663,000 Republican ballots and about 610,000 Democratic ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

Florida counties release all or almost all of their results from early in-person and mail voting in their first vote updates of the night, usually before releasing any results from in-person Election Day voting. Less than a third of counties release any in-person Election Day results in their first vote update.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8 p.m. ET, just as the final polls closed in the state. The last vote update of the night was at 11:47 p.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Florida requires a machine recount in races where the vote margin is 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. A manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is then required if the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 77 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/