AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia’s special congressional runoff

WASHINGTON (AP) — Residents of Georgia’s 13th Congressional District outside of Atlanta will get a new representative to Congress after a special election runoff Tuesday to replace the late Democratic U.S. Rep. David Scott, who died April 22 .

The contest between two Democrats will further reduce an already thin Republican majority in the U.S. House.

The finalists for the seat are former Gwinnett County School Board Chair Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of the late congressman. They were the top two vote-getters among five contenders in the July 28 all-party special election. Scott received about 46% of the vote, compared to about 38% for Blair.

The winner will serve out the remaining few months of David Scott’s final term. Neither candidate is running in for the next full term in this seat, which begins on Jan. 3, 2027.

Blair was the only candidate in the special election who also ran for the full-term seat. He placed third in the May 19 Democratic primary with about 12% of the vote. State Rep. Jasmine Clark won the primary with 56% of the vote and will face Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Chavez, who ran unopposed for the GOP nomination, challenged David Scott in the 2024 general election and received about 28% of the vote.

Clark did not file to compete in the special election. Doing so would have required her to resign from her seat in the state Legislature just as Republican Gov. Brian Kemp was calling for a special session to redraw the state’s congressional boundaries in time for the 2028 elections. The state constitution bars state officeholders from seeking a different office with a start date more than 30 days before the end of the officeholder’s current term. The special session did convene, but Republican leaders opted not to take up redistricting .

In recent years, Congressman Scott had faced questions over his age and health. At the time of his death at age 80, he was facing a tough primary challenge from Clark and others as he sought a 13th term.

Georgia’s 13th Congressional District is east and southeast of Atlanta and includes parts of six heavily Democratic counties: Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton and Rockdale. Of the six, the district’s portion of Gwinnett County has the lion’s share of voters, with about 46% of the district electorate in the 2024 general election.

Blair’s best performance in the July 28 special election was in his home base of Gwinnett County, where he received 56% of the vote. Marcye Scott, who lives outside the district in Fulton County as her father did, carried the other five counties in the district, scoring her highest totals in DeKalb, Clayton and Henry.

David Scott won his 2024 reelection bid with about 72% of the vote. In the presidential election that night, Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 71% of the vote in the district, compared with about 28% for Republican Donald Trump. Trump had his best performance in the district in Gwinnett County, although that still only amounted to about 35% of the vote.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the special runoff in the 13th Congressional District.

Any voter registered in the 13th Congressional District may participate in the special runoff.

As of Friday, there were about 585,000 registered voters in the 13th Congressional District. Georgia voters do not register by party.

A total of 20,510 votes were cast in the July 28 special election. Turnout in a runoff election tends to be lower than in the election that preceded it.

About 47% of the total vote in the July 28 special election was cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Friday, about 5,200 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, with by far the largest share coming from Gwinnett County, followed by Clayton and Rockdale counties.

All six counties in the 13th Congressional District tend to release most or all of their results from early in-person and mail voting in the first vote update of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day results are released.

In the July 28 special election, the AP first reported results at 7:05 p.m. ET, or five minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 10:05 p.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 70 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .