AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two former Republican U.S. Senators eyeing a return to Washington will compete in New Hampshire’s state primary Tuesday for a seat they’ve both sought previously with mixed results. In the Democratic primary for the same U.S. Senate seat, a four-term congressman faces an increasingly competitive challenge on his left flank from a democratic socialist candidate.

Voters will also select nominees for U.S. House, governor and other state offices.

The race to replace retiring two-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is one of a handful across the country that could determine control of the U.S. Senate for the second half of President Donald Trump’s final term. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the chamber, and keeping New Hampshire in their column is a key part of that effort.

In the Republican primary, former U.S. Sens. John Sununu and Scott Brown are among eight candidates seeking the nomination. Sununu won the seat when it was last open in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen, but she ousted him in 2008 after one term. Brown was elected in Massachusetts in 2010 to serve out the remaining three years of the late Democratic U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy’s final term. After his defeat for a full term in 2012, Brown moved to New Hampshire and challenged Shaheen in 2014, losing narrowly.

Brown endorsed Trump just ahead of his 2016 New Hampshire presidential primary victory. Trump later appointed Brown to serve as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in his first term. Trump is now backing Sununu over Brown in the primary, despite an ongoing war of words he’s had with the Sununu family over the years.

Sununu endorsed Trump’s rival Nikki Haley for president in 2024 and penned an op-ed that year under the headline “Trump is a loser.” That echoed a critique Sununu’s father, former White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu, made of Trump during the 2016 presidential primaries, when he told ABC News that Trump had been “a loser all his life.” Trump called the elder Sununu “ a main loser .”

The former senator’s brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, also endorsed Haley in 2024 and once called Trump “ (expletive) crazy .” Chris Sununu was one of the president’s top Republican critics and was a frequent target of Trump’s ire on social media.

Sununu has outraised Brown for the campaign overall, $4.1 million to about $2.2 million, although Brown has spent more of his haul than Sununu. Sununu had about $3 million remaining in his campaign account as of Aug. 19, compared to about $417,000 for Brown.

Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC tied to the conservative Koch political network , has spent at least $3.3 million on the race since June 30 in support of Sununu and against U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas , the Democratic front-runner.

Pappas has served in the U.S. House since 2019 and has held elected office almost continuously since graduating from college in 2002. He defeated Karoline Leavitt in his 2022 reelection bid before her stint as Trump’s White House press secretary.

He has the backing of much of the state’s Democratic political establishment, including Shaheen, U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan and former Gov. John Lynch. Former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed him on Aug. 31.

Pappas faces four other candidates for the Democratic nomination, including Karishma Manzur, a progressive activist and scientist with a doctoral degree in biochemistry and molecular biology. She is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

Independent polling from the University of New Hampshire shows that while Pappas continues to lead the primary field, Manzur has gained ground over the summer. A win by Manzur would be the latest high-profile victory this summer for progressive candidates over more moderate candidates backed by the Democratic establishment.

Pappas still has a commanding fundraising lead, with more than $15 million raised and about $4.3 million in the bank as of Aug. 19, compared to $415,000 raised and $104,000 in the bank for Manzur.

Crowded primaries are also underway in the 1st Congressional District to replace Pappas. Among the eight active candidates in the Democratic primary are former Portsmouth City Council member Stefany Shaheen, who is Jeanne Shaheen's daughter, and Maura Sullivan, who served as a Defense and Veterans Affairs official in former President Barack Obama's administration. The Republican field includes state Rep. Brian Cole, auto dealership owner Anthony DiLorenzo and iron works CEO Hollie Noveletsky.

Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte faces minimal opposition in her bid for renomination to a second term. She will face Democrat Cinde Warmington in November.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Poll closing times vary across the state. Most polls close at 7 p.m. ET, but some close at 7:30 p.m. or 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, executive council, state Senate and state House.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or undeclared voters with no party affiliation may participate in either primary, but voting in a primary will affiliate them with that party. New voters may register on primary day at a polling site, but the deadline to change party affiliation for voters who are already registered was in June.

As of Aug. 3, there were about 899,000 registered voters in New Hampshire, including about 300,000 Republicans, 247,000 Democrats and about 352,000 undeclared voters.

About 148,000 Republican primary ballots and about 96,000 Democratic primary ballots were cast in the 2022 state primaries.

About 135,000 Republican primary ballots and about 118,000 Democratic primary ballots were cast in the 2024 state primaries.

About 8% of Democratic primary ballots in both the 2022 and 2024 state primaries were absentee ballots cast by mail or in person. In recent Republican state primaries, absentee votes made up 4% of the total vote in 2022 and about 5% in 2024.

The New Hampshire Secretary of State has not disclosed the number of absentee ballots cast ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

New Hampshire runs elections at the town and city level. There are 238 separate jurisdictions administering local elections, and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. Most of the larger jurisdictions in the state release all or nearly all their results from both absentee and in-person Election Day voting in their first vote updates of the night. Other large jurisdictions release a mix of results throughout the night.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after the last polls closed. The vote count passed the halfway mark at 9:37 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 2:04 a.m. ET with about 92% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in New Hampshire, but in state primaries, a losing candidate may request and pay for a recount if the margin is 10 votes or less than 1.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 56 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .