AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Oklahoma’s state primary runoff

WASHINGTON (AP) — Oklahoma Republicans will return to the polls Tuesday to settle an expensive nomination fight for governor, while Democrats will pick a nominee for U.S. Senate. Voters will also decide two statewide ballot measures, including one that would add a voter identification requirement to the state constitution.

The outcome of the gubernatorial primary to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt has major implications for the fall general election, as Democrats haven’t won the Oklahoma governorship in 20 years. It will also further test President Donald Trump’s endorsement power.

State Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei were the top vote-getters among nine candidates in the June 16 primary , with Drummond just edging Mazzei, 26.25% to 25.97%. Both fell far short of the majority needed to avoid Tuesday’s runoff.

Drummond narrowly carried Oklahoma and Cleveland counties in the Oklahoma City area, while Mazzei edged Drummond in Tulsa County. The two split most of the counties in the Tulsa area.

The two have poured millions from their personal fortunes into the race, with Mazzei loaning his campaign more than $11 million, compared with $3 million for Drummond, according to state campaign finance records. Mazzei has spent $12.3 million in the race overall, while Drummond has spent about $9.1 million. Loans aside, Drummond has far outraised Mazzei in campaign contributions, $7.1 million to about $1.5 million.

Trump endorsed Mazzei ahead of the primary, while also lobbing insults at Drummond. Trump’s picks overall in 2026 have had a strong record at the ballot box, but his endorsement is not a guarantee of victory, especially in gubernatorial primaries. The president’s picks for Iowa governor and Georgia governor lost their nomination bids, while his pick for South Carolina governor was forced to a runoff and ultimately lost the nomination after the president also endorsed her opponent.

The Oklahoma winner will face Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson in the general election.

In the U.S. Senate race, nurse N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas received about 45% of the Democratic primary vote, short of the majority required to avoid a runoff. Attorney and minister Jim Priest placed second with about 24% of the vote, despite a massive fundraising advantage. He raised almost six times more than Thomas heading into the primary and increased his advantage heading into the runoff. As of Aug. 5, the Thomas campaign reported having only $455 in the bank, compared to about $56,000 for Priest.

The winner will face Republican U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern, who won the five-way primary with about 70% of the vote. The state last elected a Democrat for U.S. Senate in 1990.

Also before voters is State Question 846, which would amend the state constitution to require voters to provide proof of identity in order to cast a ballot, which is already required under state law .

State Question 844 would affect the reimbursements that local governments receive from the state for lost property tax revenue under an incentive program for manufacturing companies.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. CT, which is 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in primary runoff elections for U.S. Senate, governor, state school superintendent, labor commissioner, insurance commissioner, state Senate and state House, as well as for the two statewide ballot measures.

Voters registered with a political party may participate only in their own party’s primary runoffs. Democrats may not vote in a Republican primary runoff or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either party’s runoff elections. All registered voters may cast ballots on the statewide ballot measures.

As of July 31, there were about 2.4 million registered voters in Oklahoma, including about 1.3 million registered Republicans, 616,000 registered Democrats and 500,000 independents not registered with any party.

Roughly 403,000 votes were cast in the June 16 Republican primary for governor and 169,000 votes in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

In the June 16 state primaries, about 11% of Republican primary ballots and about 12% of Democratic primary ballots were cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Friday, about 32,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

Almost every county in Oklahoma releases all or almost all of its results from early in-person and mail voting in the first vote update of the night, usually before any results from in-person Election Day voting are released.

In the June 16 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:14 p.m. ET, or 14 minutes after polls closed. By 10:19 p.m. ET, more than 90% of the vote had been counted. The last vote update of the night was at 12:14 a.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Oklahoma does not have automatic recounts for elections involving candidates, but candidates may request and pay for one regardless of the vote margin. The state does require automatic recounts for statewide ballot questions if the margin is 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. The required margin is larger for state constitutional amendments. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 70 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .