AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — In Pennsylvania, three races for U.S. House seats currently held by Republicans are being closely watched for their potential to turn blue.

The Keystone State is one of several states whose House races could determine whether Democrats take back power in the chamber. Democrats need to win three more seats in the midterm elections than they did in 2024 to take back the majority from Republicans.

Conditions have worsened for Republicans seeking office since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term. His approval rating has plunged , and his tariff policy, immigration crackdown and decision to launch a war in Iran are squeezing Americans’ finances and threatening to alienate his supporters .

In the three key Pennsylvania districts — the 7th, 8th and 10th — Trump outperformed the Republican House winners in the 2024 election, a warning sign that without his name on the ballot, the incumbents seeking reelection may struggle to get the Republican turnout necessary to stay in office.

In 2024, Trump won the 7th Congressional District, in the Lehigh Valley, by a margin of just 3 percentage points. Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is running for a second term, and Democrat Bob Brooks, a former firefighter and union leader, are now facing off in the district. In the 2024 election, Mackenzie ousted the Democratic incumbent, Susan Wild, winning the election by one percentage point.

Brooks and Mackenzie had raised nearly the same amounts — about $5.3 million each — as of mid-October. Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.

The race in the 8th Congressional District, in the state’s northeast, is also being closely watched. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, the Republican incumbent, is facing off against Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton. Bresnahan flipped the seat in 2024, winning by about 2 percentage points. Trump won the same district by a much more comfortable margin of nearly 9 points.

Cognetti has made eradicating corruption central to her campaign and attacked her opponent's past congressional stock trades. Bresnahan has campaigned on lowering taxes and costs and increasing border security.

The 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is in the south-central part of the state, and includes Harrisburg, the state capital. Scott Perry, the far-right Republican incumbent endorsed by Trump, is up for a rematch of the 2024 election against Democrat Janelle Stelson. In that election, Perry won by just over 1 percentage point, while Trump won the district by a larger margin of over 5 percentage points.

Some Republicans have been highlighting their differences with the president to appeal to alienated voters, but this may be harder for Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair who has aligned himself with the president for years . Perry was involved in Trump’s attempt to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election, which Trump lost. Perry was not charged with a crime, but his cellphone was seized as part of the FBI’s investigation into the matter.

Stelson, a former television news anchor, has campaigned as a moderate alternative to Perry, pitching herself as a candidate with a bipartisan focus committed to reducing the cost of living.

As of mid-October, Stelson had raised $9.2 million, while Perry had raised $6.8 million, and millions more in outside spending have been put into the race.

In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro is seeking a second term. He faces Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity, but polls suggest he's ahead of his opponent. Shapiro is considered a possible contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for governor, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

About 5.4 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.

About 23% of votes in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for Pennsylvania can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

Counties are expected to release reports for early and absentee votes at varied times over the course of election night. Some counties are expected to release results for absentee and early votes in the first report of the night. Almost all are expected to have released all or almost all votes of all types by the last vote report of the night.

The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 8 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2024, as polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reported at 10:12 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reported at 12:48 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, 2024.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Pennsylvania requires an automatic recount for statewide races with a vote margin of 0.5% or less. Voters may also request a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .