AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Tennessee’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tennessee’s senior U.S. senator eyes a job change in a state primary on Thursday while Memphis voters will choose their first U.S. House nominees under a new Republican-drawn congressional map that forced their longtime Democratic representative into retirement.

Republican Gov. Bill Lee is term-limited, and the GOP primary to replace him has attracted U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn , four-term U.S. Rep. John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts. The outcome of the Republican primary has additional significance in Tennessee, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in 20 years.

Blackburn won reelection to a second U.S. Senate term in 2024 and launched her campaign for governor in August 2025. Rose launched his gubernatorial bid in March 2025 and has loaned his campaign about $13 million since mid-June. Aside from candidate loans, Blackburn has outraised Rose in terms of campaign contributions. She also has the support of an outside group that has spent roughly $5.1 million backing her and opposing Rose.

President Donald Trump backed Blackburn and Rose in their previous campaigns, but he has not endorsed a candidate in the gubernatorial primary.

Five candidates are running in the Democratic primary for governor, including Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green.

Memphis was a prime target among state Republican lawmakers who in May enacted new congressional boundaries that split the heavily Democratic city into three Republican-dominated congressional districts. Democratic U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen has represented the current Memphis-based 9th District for 20 years, but he ended his reelection bid shortly after the new map was adopted.

One of the Democrats running to replace him in the new 9th District is state Rep. Justin Pearson, who originally planned to challenge Cohen for the nomination . Pearson was one of two Democratic state lawmakers expelled from office in 2023 over his role in a gun control protest in the chamber. Both won back their seats four months later. Also running are state Sen. London Lamar and former healthcare and nonprofit executive Jim Torino.

Running for the Republican nomination in the new 9th District are state Sen. Brent Taylor, state Rep. Todd Warner, retired Army sergeant and volunteer firefighter Jeremy Thompson and conservative activist Charlotte Bergmann. Taylor has outraised the rest of the combined field and has Trump’s endorsement.

Voters in the new 9th District supported Trump for president in 2024 with about 60% of the vote, compared with the current 9th District, which Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris won with about 71% of the vote.

Tennessee’s junior U.S. senator, Bill Hagerty, seeks a second term and is the only candidate named on the Republican primary ballot. Five Democrats are running to challenge him in November. The last Democrat to win one of Tennessee’s U.S. Senate seats was Al Gore in 1990.

The key counties in statewide elections are Shelby, Davidson and Knox, which are home to the population centers of Memphis, Nashville and Knoxville, respectively. In recent statewide elections, candidates from both major political parties won their primaries by posting a large margin in one of the three counties and losing the other two narrowly while also winning the bulk of the state’s rural areas. Lee won his Republican gubernatorial primary in 2018 by posting a big win in Davidson, while his opponents split Shelby and Knox. Hagerty won his 2020 primary carrying Shelby by a large margin and losing Knox, Davidson and Hamilton, home to Chattanooga. Blackburn carried every county in both her 2018 and 2024 U.S. Senate primaries.

About half of Tennessee’s 33 state Senate seats and all 99 state House seats are up in 2026. Republicans hold overwhelming majorities in both chambers.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Although Tennessee is in two time zones, all polls in both the Eastern and Central time zones are coordinated to close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Tennessee does not register voters by party, which in other states usually means that any registered voter may choose to vote in any party’s primary. However, a 2023 law requires local elections officials to post signs at polling places with language from a 1972 law stating that primary voters must be “bona fide” members of a political party or “declare allegiance to” the party to participate in that party’s primary. The language was also added recently to absentee ballot applications. Neither law specifies what it means to be a “bona fide” member of a party.

As of June 1, there were about 4.7 million registered voters in Tennessee.

There were about 411,000 Republican primary voters and about 205,000 Democratic primary voters in the last U.S. Senate primaries in 2024. In the last primaries for governor in 2022, the Republican contest had about 494,000 voters, while the Democratic contest had about 258,000 voters.

About 55% of the 2024 state primary vote and about 54% of the 2022 state primary vote was early in person or by mail.

As of Saturday, about 397,000 Republican primary ballots and about 225,000 Democratic primary ballots had already been cast in Thursday’s election.

In previous elections, nearly all counties tended to release the bulk of their results from mail and early in-person voting in the first report of the night, usually before releasing in-person Election Day results.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:19 p.m. ET, with more than 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Tennessee, recounts are held only as part of a legal challenge in the courts. There are no automatic recounts, and losing candidates may not request recounts. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Thursday, there will be 89 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .