AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Kansas state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Kansas Republicans will narrow down a crowded field for governor in a state primary Tuesday as they look to retake the state’s top office after eight years of Democratic rule. Democrats will decide competitive primaries for governor and U.S. Senate, while Kansans across the state will consider whether to amend the state constitution to allow direct election of state Supreme Court justices.

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, making the race to replace her a top takeover opportunity for Republicans. Although Kansas votes reliably Republican in statewide federal contests, the state also has a 60-year streak of electing governors from the opposite party of their immediate predecessors.

The Republican primary for governor will be the latest test of President Donald Trump’s influence in Republican primaries this year. He has endorsed state Senate President Ty Masterson over former state Rep. Charlotte O’Hara, financial services executive Philip Sarnecki, state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab .

The Democratic primary field features state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog.

Sarnecki has outspent the rest of the field, thanks in large part to the $2.5 million he loaned his campaign. His running mate, data analytics firm founder and former Wichita school board member Joy Eakins, also has deep pockets. She loaned her own gubernatorial campaign $1 million before dropping out and joining Sarnecki’s ticket. She has since made a $50,000 contribution to the campaign.

Schwab loaned more than $2.1 million to his campaign and ranked second in overall spending. Masterson was fourth in overall campaign spending, but he outraised Sarnecki and Schwab in donor contributions, excluding candidate loans.

In the Democratic primary, Corson about doubled Holscher and Skoog's combined fundraising and spending. He also has a key endorsement from Kelly.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall seeks his party’s nomination for a second term and has Trump’s endorsement. Marshall won his 2020 primary with about 40% of the vote against former Secretary of State and current state Attorney General Kris Kobach.

He faces a quixotic primary challenge from Arch Naramore, who will appear on ballots under his middle name, Pond. Naramore challenged former U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback for the Republican nomination in 2004, receiving 13% of the vote in a head-to-head matchup.

The crowded, 11-candidate field for the Democratic nomination includes former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Christy Davis, Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton , real estate developer and entrepreneur Erik Murray, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, retired financial services executive Sandy Spidel Neumann and marketing professional and Afghanistan War veteran Noah Taylor.

Hamilton has outraised the rest of the combined Democratic field.

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Kansas since 1932. No Democrat has ever been elected to the seat Marshall holds since the state first began direct elections of U.S. Senators in 1914.

Voters will also decide a statewide ballot measure that would allow the direct election of state Supreme Court justices and remove the governor's role from the process. Under the current system, a commission of mostly attorneys compiles a list of three finalists to fill a state Supreme Court vacancy, and the governor makes the final choice.

Also on the ballot are contested primaries for U.S. House, secretary of state and state Board of Education. All 125 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republicans control 70% of seats in the chamber.

Johnson County in the Kansas City suburbs is the most populous county in the state and plays a big role in both statewide Democratic and Republican primaries, as do Wichita-based Sedgwick and Topeka-based Shawnee counties. The state’s two most heavily Democratic counties, Douglas and Wyandotte, tend to be more influential in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET. Polls in most of the state are in the Central time zone and close at 8 p.m. ET, but some polls are in Mountain time and close at 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, state Board of Education and state House, as well as for a statewide ballot measure.

Voters registered with a political party may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary if they affiliate with that party at the polls.

As of May 1, there were about 2 million registered voters in Kansas, including about 894,000 Republicans, about 495,000 Democrats and about 588,000 voters not affiliated with any party.

About 463,000 Republican primary votes and about 289,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2022 primaries for governor.

About 45% of the Democratic primary vote and about 28% of the Republican primary vote in the 2024 state primaries was cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Friday, about 133,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 62,000 from Republicans and about 60,000 from Democrats.

Kansas counties vary in how they release vote results, but about half release results from mail voting along with in-person Election Day voting over the course of the night.

In the 2022 Democratic primary for governor, the AP first reported results at 8:24 p.m. ET, or 24 minutes after polls closed in most of the state. The vote count surpassed the halfway mark at about 10:02 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 3:31 a.m. ET with about 96% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in Kansas, but candidates may request and pay for one regardless of the vote margin. If the candidate requesting the recount is declared the winner, then the counties will bear the costs. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .