AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — For the third time in nine months, Virginia residents will vote in a statewide election on Tuesday, this time to choose nominees for U.S. Senate and U.S. House, including in some competitive swing districts that could decide control of the narrowly divided chamber in November.

The congressional primaries will take place using the commonwealth’s existing district boundaries. Voters approved a more Democratic-friendly map in April, but Virginia’s highest court invalidated the new boundaries less than three weeks later.

The failed effort to enact a new Virginia map was in response to a largely successful push by President Donald Trump and state lawmakers in several Republican-controlled states like Texas and Missouri to redraw their congressional maps ahead of schedule and boost their party’s chances of maintaining their fragile U.S. House majority.

Under the current map, Virginia’s most competitive U.S. House seat is likely in the 2nd Congressional District, where a rematch may be in the works between two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans and the Democrat she unseated in 2022, former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria.

Luria is among four Democrats seeking the nomination, but the retired Navy commander and former House Select Jan. 6 Committee member dwarfs the rest of the combined field in terms of fundraising and available cash as of mid-July. Kiggans, also a former Naval officer, is unopposed in the Republican primary.

A contested primary is also underway in the neighboring 1st Congressional District, where seven Democratic hopefuls are running to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman. That field includes Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, retired Navy Commander and former corporate government affairs executive Jason Knapp, and attorneys Salaam Bhatti and Mel Tull. Wittman, who is seeking a 10th full term, is unopposed for renomination.

In the 7th Congressional District, which straddles Northern and Central Virginia, freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Eugene Vindman faces no primary challengers in his bid for a second term. In November, he’ll face the winner of a three-way primary between Republicans Philip Harding, Doug Ollivant and Rick Smithers.

The Democratic primary in the 5th Congressional District also features a comeback attempt by a former member of Congress. Tom Perriello served one term from 2009 to 2011 in the Charlottesville-area district. If he wins the three-way primary, he would likely face Republican U.S. Rep. John McGuire in a district that Trump won with about 56% of the vote.

Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has endorsed Luria, Taylor and Perriello in their congressional primaries.

At the top of the ballot, Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is unopposed in his bid for a fourth term. Running to challenge him in November are Republicans Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa and David Williams. Warner has held the seat since 2009 and won his last reelection with 56% of the vote.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House and the Arlington County Board.

Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary.

There were about 6,387,000 registered voters as of March 1. Virginia voters do not register by party.

About 273,000 votes were cast in the last Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2024. That year, the Democratic primaries for the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts had about 23,000 and about 29,000 total votes, respectively, while the Republican primary in the 7th Congressional District had about 36,000 total votes.

Advance voting tends to make up a larger share of the vote in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries. In 2024, about 55% of the vote in the 1st District Democratic primary and about 47% of the 2nd District Democratic primary vote were mail or early in-person votes. In comparison, about 27% of the vote was cast early in person or by mail in the Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate and for the 7th Congressional District.

As of Friday, about 139,000 ballots had been cast in Tuesday’s election, about 84,000 from Democrats and about 55,000 from Republicans.

Virginia counties and independent cities vary in terms of how and when they release results, but the first vote updates of the night tend to include results from all vote types: early in person, mail and in person on Election Day.

Roughly a third of jurisdictions release all or almost all of their early and absentee voting results in their first vote update of the night, often along with results from in-person Election Day voting. Most counties and cities begin releasing at least some results from in-person Election Day voting in the first update and over the course of the night.

Nearly half the jurisdictions release no early or absentee voting results in the first vote update.

In the 2025 general election for Virginia governor, the AP first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 1:52 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts. Candidates may request and pay for recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1 percentage point or less. No payment is required if the recount results in a margin of less than 0.5 percentage points or if the outcome has changed. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/ .