Denny Hamlin says Toyota needs a 'deep dive' into drought as Kyle Larson eyes another NASCAR title

HOMESTEAD, Fla. (AP) — Denny Hamlin believes his chances of celebrating an elusive Cup Series championship Sunday are akin to winning the lottery.

“Can you really count on that?” he quipped.

Since Kyle Larson is pretty much a sure bet to secure his second consecutive title and third in six years with Hendrick Motorsports, Hamlin has essentially moved on to 2027. Sure, he would love to win the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway and close out 2026 on a high note.

But he also is ready to delve into what went wrong for Toyota, which has a series-leading 18 victories through 35 races and was a heavy favorite to claim the Bill France Cup when the Chase for the championship began in September.

“It needs to be looked at,” Hamlin said. “We have to figure out that the win ratio to the championship ratio has just not been as good as it needs to be. That needs to be a deep dive and honestly figure out what needs to be changed.

“I don’t think we should just rinse and repeat, and let’s just do this all again next year. We really should think about what it’s going to take to win the big prize at the end because our cars are too fast for there to be just a few.”

Toyota has three Cup championships in 20 years in NASCAR, with Kyle Busch winning two (2015, 2019) and Martin Truex Jr. notching the other in 2017. Toyota has come close a bunch of times since, none of those as gut-wrenching as Hamlin’s runner-up finish last year.

But the manufacturer has never endured a season like this, where it enjoyed two stretches in which it won seven of nine races — and even won three in a row in the playoffs — only to get all-but-eliminated before the finale.

It’s a huge credit to Larson, who delivered a postseason run for the ages . Larson won three times in the Chase and finished eight of the nine events inside the top 10 – a staggering surge in which he essentially lapped the field.

Larson holds a 67-point lead over Christopher Bell — he is 70 points ahead of Hamlin — and needs only nine points Sunday to secure his third championship. He gets one point for starting the race and could have it wrapped up based on where he finishes the opening stage.

Even if Larson struggles — unlikely considering he has two wins and six top-five finishes in 12 starts at Homestead — either Bell or Hamlin would need to accumulate significant points to catch him. The maximum number of points for a race is 76.

“I don’t have any optimism,” Hamlin said.

Larson’s cushion has removed most of the drama from the finale, which returned to Homestead this season after six years in Phoenix. NASCAR didn’t even require Bell and Hamlin to show for championship media day Thursday.

It was, in essence, the first parade lap for Larson.

Bell and Hamlin addressed their long-shot scenarios the following day. For Hamlin, it was part of another disappointing end to a season.

He looked like he was going to win his first Cup title last year. Driving in his 21st full season, the guy widely considered the greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship was the sentimental favorite and had a seemingly insurmountable lead with three laps to go.

But William Byron blew a tire, bringing out a caution flag and sending the race into overtime. It forced teams to make critical decisions about pitting. Hamlin’s crew put on four new tires, but Larson took just two and took the lead on pit road.

In a two-lap sprint to the finish, Hamlin couldn’t catch Larson and was devastated afterward.

“I felt like last year was like a sudden death, and this one was just a slow bleed,” Hamlin said. “I just was in shock (last year). … Then this year, through each playoff race, I’m on the way home thinking: ‘Gosh, it's all right, though. We’ll have to just make up for it next week.’ …

“This one was definitely a cut to the wrist and just watch it bleed.”

And now he’s gambling on finding some answers in the offseason that might help him win a title in what he has said would be his last season.

“Most of my career I’ve had fast cars capable of winning championships, but if anyone really did a deep dive in the sea, what happened in the playoffs or Chase for the 11 (car) year after year, it’s an anomaly of things that just doesn’t make sense, that just don’t happen.

“That’s just unfortunate. … It’s so frustrating because you know that you’re definitely capable, but you have to still play the game. No one’s going to go out there and score for you.”

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