Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula: Brazil’s undecided and abstaining voters may determine the election

Associated Press (AP) — Ana Beatriz Bon Raggio is not persuaded by either left-leaning Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or far-right Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the second round of the presidential election on Oct. 25.

“The right mixes religion and faith, whereas I think those things should be separate, while (Lula’s) Workers’ Party has robbed the country,” said Bon Raggio, a 19-year-old studying theater in Rio de Janeiro, while walking around a shopping mall in downtown Rio. “I’m very undecided.”

Her distrust is rooted in history: Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption and Lula was jailed for 19 months on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled. Bolsonaro’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for planning a coup after his 2022 defeat to Lula.

As the second round nears, both Lula and Bolsonaro are hyperfocused on winning over undecided voters such as Bon Raggio, as well as those who voted for one of the eliminated candidates in the first round. More than 33 million, or 21% of the electorate, did not go to the polls on Sunday.

The abstention percentage is the highest since 1998 for a first round. First-round non-voting has been slowly increasing since 2006, according to data from Brazil’s electoral court. Not voting in Brazil incurs a small fine as participation is mandatory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70.

“Abstention of 20% isn’t ideal,” said the president of Brazil’s electoral court, Kassio Nunes Marques, after Sunday’s vote. “The idea is to intensify and perfect all the available mechanisms to diminish this percentage in the second round.”

Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro received more than 50% during the first round on Sunday, and will now face each other in the runoff scheduled for Oct. 25.

Bolsonaro has at least two advantages: He received 2 million more votes than Lula on Sunday and the candidates who placed third, fourth and fifth — Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado — are all on the right of the political spectrum. Caiado, who garnered around 2.6 million votes, endorsed Bolsonaro on Tuesday. Cury and Santos have said they will not support either candidate.

Nearly six million people cast a blank or spoiled vote — including Alexandre Moreira, a 21-year-old university student. Ahead of the second round, he is also undecided, though he's leaning toward Lula because he believes the incumbent is open-minded.

“But things are more expensive, and I’m feeling it,” said Moreira, who works three part-time jobs to earn a living while studying.

He pointed to the rising price of gasoline, which has increased from 5 reais ($1) a liter in January 2023 to 6.54 reais ($1.31) in September 2026, according to Brazil’s National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels.

On Sunday, many lined up to cast their vote wearing either red hats and T-shirts — signaling support for Lula’s party — or the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag traditionally used by Bolsonaro's movement, reflecting the polarization gripping the country.

But others feel alienated, misrepresented and worn out by the opposing political forces, said Carolina Almeida de Paula, a political scientist from Rio de Janeiro State University.

“We talk a lot about polarization in Brazil, but we forget the higher percentage of people who don’t like this fight,” she said.

Brazil’s polling agency Datafolha predicted around 11% of people were undecided ahead of the first round. Around the same time in 2022, the Datafolha poll found just 2% were undecided.

Meri Oliveira, 62, is among those who won’t vote for either candidate in three weeks’ time. “Flávio Bolsonaro is as corrupt as Lula,” said Oliveira.

Oliveira called the current president “the biggest thief in Brazil” and referred to his stint in prison . She also decried Jair Bolsonaro’s misogynist comments and his handling of the pandemic , during which more than 700,000 people died in Brazil — the second-highest toll after the U.S.

Getting people to participate in the second round is difficult, Almeida de Paula said, adding that this year’s election campaigns have been atypically subdued after several scandals .

“We could see more mobilization ahead of the second round, which could bring many more votes. That could mean increasing votes for Bolsonaro or allowing Lula to turn the election around,” she said.

Bon Raggio, the theater student, said that if the vote were tomorrow, she would probably cast a blank ballot.

“Brazil’s situation is complicated; I don’t think it’s a good idea for either of them to govern,” she said. “But I could still change my mind.”

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